摘要
采用动态一般均衡方法,通过构建包含巨灾风险因素的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,研究巨灾事件对我国宏观经济的动态影响,并分析其传导机制。结果表明:(1)巨灾事件在不同政策机制下对宏观经济的冲击效应存在较大差异,货币政策在提升宏观经济的整体防御能力方面显著优于财政政策和无政策因素两种情形,特别是在稳定就业方面;(2)价格粘性因素短期内能够有效缓解巨灾事件对产出、消费及就业的冲击,一定程度上降低巨灾情境下的市场利率水平,而中长期内价格粘性因素对宏观经济复苏周期的影响不显著;(3)适度的价格粘性使得货币政策能够有效刺激企业的投资及产出规模,提升货币政策在宏观经济中的持续时间,但对居民消费具有一定的抑制作用。
Based on the theory of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE), this paper analyzes the dynamic effects and conduction mechanism of rare disaster on China′s macro economy by building a new Keynesian DSGE model containing disaster risk factors. The research shows the following.(1) Impacts of catastrophic events on the macro economy have large difference among different policy mechanism, and monetary policy has more important role in promoting defense capability of macro economy than fiscal policy and non policy, especially for the employment.(2) Price stickiness can effectively relieve the catastrophe event impact on output, consumption and employment in the short term, at the same time, significantly reduce inflation pressure and interest rate under the rare disaster condition. Price stickiness factors have little effect on macroeconomic recovery period in the long term.(3) Moderate price stickiness can effectively stimulate the investment and output, and promote the duration in macro economy, but has certain inhibitory effect on residents′ consumption.
作者
晁江锋
CHAO JiangFeng(School of Accounting, Zhengzhou University of Aeronautics, Zhengzhou 450046)
出处
《财贸研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期32-42,86,共12页
Finance and Trade Research
基金
国家自然科学基金项目"巨灾风险的宏观经济动态效应及防范机制研究"(71603243)
河南省社科规划年度项目"巨灾情境下农产品价格异常波动的经济效应及防范机制研究"(2018CJJ072)
河南省社科规划年度项目"河南省环境治理与经济增长的互动机制及应对措施研究"(2018CJJ095)
