摘要
以中国31个省份的面板数据为基础,在测度不同尺度下中国"人口、土地、产业"城镇化率的基础上,运用哈肯模型分析了中国"人口、土地、产业"城镇化协同演化的序参量、动力机制及路径。结果显示:中国"人口、土地、产业"城镇化协同演化呈现7种不同路径;在全国尺度上,已初步形成了"产业城镇化→人口城镇化→土地城镇化"的协同演化路径;在区域和省域尺度上,除西部地区外的其他三大区域和约70%的省份仅形成了"人口城镇化—土地城镇化—产业城镇化"两两协同演化的路径。据此认为,应充分考虑人口、土地、产业三个城镇化要素之间的联动关系,因地制宜促进"人口、土地、产业"城镇化协同演化,实现中国城镇化的健康发展。
Based on provincial panel data of 31 provinces from 2006 to 2016,this study evaluates the rate of population urbanization,land urbanization and industry urbanization in Chinese Mainland,analyzes the order parameters,power mechanisms and paths of co-evolution of population urbanization,land urbanization and industry urbanization by using Haken Model at different scales,and then puts forward the corresponding policy enlightenment.The results indicate that:Co-evolution paths of population urbanization,land urbanization and industry urbanization in China show 7 different situations in the study period.At the national scale,it has initially formed the co-evolution path that industry urbanization leading population urbanization meanwhile population urbanization leading land urbanization in China.While,at the regional scale and provincial scale,it hasn’t formed the co-evolution path among population urbanization,land urbanization and industry urbanization in 70%of provinces and the Four Regions besides the west.It’s necessary to fully consider the linkage between the three urbanization factors of population,land and industry,and promote the co-evolution of population urbanization,land urbanization and industry urbanization according to local conditions,in order to realize the scientific development of urbanization.
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期14-22,共9页
Urban Problems
基金
辽宁省社会经济发展研究项目(20181slktyb-060)
关键词
城镇化
协同演化机制
哈肯模型
urbanization
co-evolution mechanism
Haken Model
