摘要
基于系统理论,在城镇化质量评价中引入耦合协调度,采用"纵横向"拉开档次法测度了2006-2015年长三角城市群的城镇化质量时空演变状况;并建立VAR模型,应用脉冲响应函数和方差分解,动态分析了耦合协调度与城镇化质量间的关系。结果显示:长三角城市群城镇化发展存在时空收敛效应,凸显了部分地区城镇化质量提升"滞缓"的潜在问题;与自身冲击相比,耦合协调度对城镇化质量的最大正向效应出现期数晚、持续时间长,且贡献程度逐期提高。据此认为,注重系统间的均衡发展关系对保持城镇化的持续高质量发展具有重要意义。
Based on system theory,the coupling degree is introduced into the evaluation of urbanization quality.This paper uses vertical and horizontal scatter degree method to measure the temporal and spatial evolution of the quality of Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2006 to 2015;then the VAR model is established,and Impulse Response Function and VARiance Decomposition are applied to dynamically analyze the relationship between the coupling degree and urbanization quality.The results show that there is a convergence effect in the urbanization development of urban agglomerations,it indicates the potential problem of"lagging"in urbanization quality in some areas;compared with its own impacts,the appearance date of the greatest positive effect of coupling degree on quality is more late,the duration of the effect is longer,and the degree of its contribution increases by stages,the conclusion illustrates that focusing on the balanced development relationship among systems is of great significance for maintaining the sustainable and long-term development of urbanization.
作者
龚志冬
黄健元
GONG Zhi - dong;HUANG Jian - yuan
出处
《城市问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期23-30,共8页
Urban Problems
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目(15ZDB170)
关键词
城镇化质量
耦合协调度
“纵横向”拉开档次法
VAR模型
urbanization quality
coupling degree
vertical and horizontal scatter degree method
VAR model
