摘要
海外核电项目因为具有国际性和核能特殊性的双重特点,风险管理难度相对国内项目增大很多。中国核电企业走出去参与国际市场竞争,迫切需要系统性的风险识别和分析方法。本文参考了系统工程的霍尔三维结构模型理念,从建立风险链和风险地图的角度,对现有海外核电项目EPC风险识别方法进行优化。本文提出利用风险链和风险地图的分析方法进行海外核电项目EPC风险识别与分析研究,并对海外核电项目EPC风险从知识维、逻辑维、时间维三个维度进行分析,最终建立海外核电项目EPC风险地图三维模型。通过风险链和风险地图的分析方法,可以对项目风险进行全局把控和对管理人员进行有效指导,实现风险动态管理,并且风险控制的关键点突出,不同阶段风险侧重点清晰,也便于不同项目的差异性管理。同时,这种系统分析的思路和成果能够为建立全面风险管理的计算机软件系统打下良好框架基础。
Due overseas nuclear power projects have the dual characteristics of international and nuclear,the risk management of overseas nuclear power projects is much more difficult than that of domestic ones.Chinese nuclear power enterprises are in urgent need of systematic risk analysis method marching to the international market.This article optimizes existing overseas nuclear power project EPC risk identification and analysis method referring to Hall three-dimensional structure model of system engineering and puts forward the risk chain and risk map analysis method as innovative approaches for overseas nuclear project EPC risk analysis.This article analyzes overseas nuclear power project EPC risks from knowledge dimension,logic dimension and time dimension respectively,and sets up three-dimensional model of overseas nuclear power project EPC risk map.Knowledge dimension means that in addition to certain generic knowledge,the risk analysis of the system also needs to be applied to the corresponding professional knowledge and professional technology of each subject.As to risk analysis of overseas nuclear power project,the knowledge dimension includes politics,economy,contract,progress and so on.In this paper,the study of knowledge dimension is analyzed by risk breakdown structure of EPC risk of overseas nuclear power projects.The logical dimension refers to the discovery,analysis and resolution of problems.In the field of risk analysis,a group of closely related risk items can be effectively managed as a risk chain.Take an overseas nuclear power project as an example,this paper ravels out before and after sequence of risk complex relations,and analyzes risk transmission path of overseas nuclear power projects,based on the risk chain of risk identification and analysis.In the time dimension,the entire project life cycle of overseas nuclear power EPC project can be divided into five phases,namely,pre-project,design,procurement,construction and commissioning.The three-dimensional model of overseas nuclear power project EPC risk map gets all factors in three dimensions together and presents logical relationship between each other.In this way,overseas nuclear power project EPC risks could be taken into full account,and both project management person and risk management staff could be guided in a practical way.Meanwhile,this analysis method and three-dimensional model implement dynamic project risk management,and identify prominent control key points and different emphasis for each project phase.This method also facilitates the corresponding risk management of international projects with different regulatory requirements.Besides,this analysis method and three-dimensional model would provide an excellent foundation for the establishment of comprehensive risk management computer software system as well.
作者
于美
YU Mei(State Nuclear Power Engineering Company,Shanghai 200233,China)
出处
《核科学与工程》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第1期155-163,共9页
Nuclear Science and Engineering
关键词
风险链
风险地图
海外项目
核电站
EPC
risk chain
risk map
overseas project
nuclear power plant
EPC
