摘要
变参数概率分布模型是描述变化环境下非平稳性水文极值系列的概率分布特征的重要方法之一,分析多个变参数概率分布模型的拟合效果,优选确定采用的模型。但由于变参数概率分布模型的参数变化规律未知,最优拟合的模型也未必能精准地代表非平稳极值系列的概率分布特征,导致依据单一最优拟合模型计算的结果不可避免地存在不确定性。鉴于此,提出对多模型的计算结果进行综合,即构建多套变参数概率分布模型,基于赤池信息准则选取拟合最优的若干模型,采用等可靠度方法推求基于各选定模型的水文设计值,并对不同模型的估计结果进行加权综合获得综合设计值,以降低模型选择对水文设计值产生的不确定性影响,增强水文频率分析计算结果的可靠性。
The variable-parameter probabilistic distribution model is one of the important ways to describe the probabilistic distribution characteristics of the nonstationary hydrological extreme series. The best model is determined by analyzing the fitting effects of different variable parameter probability distribution models. However,because the change rule of the variable-parameter probabilistic distribution model is unknown,the best-fitting model may not accurately represent the probability distribution characteristics of the non-stationary series,resulting in a certain uncertainty. Therefore,this study proposes the synthesis of multi-model calculations. Constructing several variable-parameter probabilistic distribution models,and some suitable models are selected based on the Akaike information criterion. Hydrological design values of selected models are deduced by using equivalent reliability methods. The estimation results of different models are weighted and synthesized to obtain comprehensive design values to reduce the influence of model selection on the uncertainty of hydrological design values and improve the reliability of hydrological frequency analysis results.
作者
张洁
梁忠民
胡义明
王军
李彬权
ZHANG Jie;LIANG Zhong-min;HU Yi-ming;WANG Jun;LI Bin-quan(College of Hydrology and Water Resources,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China)
出处
《中国农村水利水电》
北大核心
2019年第2期67-70,共4页
China Rural Water and Hydropower
关键词
变化环境
变参数概率分布模型
等可靠度
综合水文设计值
changing environment
variable parameter probability distribution model
equivalent reliability
comprehensive hydrological design value
