摘要
自"重返亚太"以来,美国的亚太联盟凝聚力整体得到强化。但出现的经验困惑是:为什么在美国强化亚太联盟的共同背景下,美日联盟、美韩联盟以及美澳联盟凝聚力的强化程度存在显著差异?由于单极体系下联盟安全合作的动力是获益,联盟成员国之间的博弈空间最大,因此,盟国间应对联盟对象国的战略行为匹配程度决定了联盟凝聚力的变化。通过对美日联盟、美韩联盟以及美澳联盟的比较研究发现,三组联盟战略行为匹配程度的差异性导致其凝聚力强化程度的差异性,战略行为分歧在一定程度上影响了美国牵制中国的效果。在对美国亚太联盟凝聚力变化的理论和经验研究基础上得出的政策启示是,随着特朗普政府以"印太战略"取代"重返亚太"战略,中国需警惕未来美国的亚太联盟发展成一个高度团结的制衡性联盟体系,且需更加合理地使用对抗和安抚的战略手段,增强或维持美国与其亚太盟国应对中国的战略行为的分歧,使美国亚太联盟凝聚力保持在较低水平,以化解美国"印太战略"针对中国的对抗性特征。
Since the U.S.return to Asia,the cohesion of the U.S.Asia-Pacific alliance has been strengthened as a whole.But the puzzle is:why is there a significant difference in the degree of cohesion enhancement between the US-Japan alliance,the U.S.-Korea alliance and the U.S.-Australia alliance under the common background of strengthening the Asia-Pacific alliance by the United States?Through the theoretical discussion,this paper argues that the strategic behavior matching between allies in response to the targets determines the change of alliance cohesion under the unipolar system.On the basis of empirical research,this paper draws the conclusion that the difference of strategic behavior matching among these three alliances leads to the difference of the degree of cohesion enhancement.To some extent,the divergence of strategic behavior has affected the effect of the U.S.constraint on China.The policy implication of this paper is that with Trump replacing the strategy of returning to Asia with the strategy of Indo-Pacific,China should be vigilant about the future development of the U.S.Asia-Pacific alliance turning into a highly united and balancing alliance system,and China should use the strategic means of confrontation and reassurance more rationally,strengthening or maintaining the strategic behavior divergence between the U.S.and its allies,keeping the cohesion of the U.S.Asia-Pacific alliance at a relatively low level,in order to resolve the antagonistic characteristics of the U.S.Indo-Pacific strategy against China.
作者
李泽
Li Ze(Zhou Enlai School of Government,Nankai University)
出处
《世界经济与政治》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第1期128-155,160,共29页
World Economics and Politics
关键词
战略行为匹配程度
联盟凝聚力
美国亚太联盟
重返亚太
印太战略
strategic behavior matching
alliance cohesion
the U.S.Asia-Pacific alliance
Pivot to Asia
Indo-Pacific Strategy
