摘要
科学研判当前及未来人口形势,事关中国未来人口发展战略及人口政策走向。本研究主要基于全国历年人口普查和各种抽样调查数据,采用总和生育率间接估计方法、队列要素人口预测方法和孩次递进人口预测方法,对中国当前人口状况及未来发展趋势进行分析并得出以下基本结论:(1)"全面两孩"政策对稳定二孩生育水平具有重要意义,然而由于一孩生育率下降和整体生育水平偏低,政策效果大打折扣。(2)中国总人口2018年负增长的可能性几乎不存在,且2018年总人口低于13.2亿人的可能性也非常小,总人口在13.6亿人以上的可能性更大。(3)无论是否完全取消生育限制,中国总人口峰值将在14.2亿人及以内,达到或超过14.3亿人的可能性很小。总人口负增长起始年份估计在2026—2027年前后。
Based on census data and sample surveys, this paper analyzes the latest population situation and demographic trends in Contemporary China. This article finds that, firstly, China s TFP in recent ten years is between 1.3 to 1.6, except 2016 and 2017 which the levels are both around 1.6. Secondly, it is impossible that China s population has a negative growth in 2018. China s population size will not be less than 1.32 billion, but rather may above 1.36 billion. Thirdly, the population peak would not exceed 1.43 billion in the future no matter eliminating birth control or not. It estimates there will be a population decrease, approximately starting from 2026 or 2027. By 2050, the newly-born population will decrease to 11 million, which is more than one-third less than it is today.
作者
王广州
王军
Wang Guangzhou;Wang Jun
出处
《社会发展研究》
CSSCI
2019年第1期1-20,242,共21页
Journal of Social Development
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目"人口统计调查的国际前沿理论及其在中国的应用"(项目编号:16ZDA090
主持人:王广州)的阶段性成果
