摘要
根据新疆阿克苏地区485家特色林果种植贫困农户的问卷调查数据,采用二元Logistic回归模型,从农户收入状况和创收能力两方面,实证分析特色林果业的扶贫效果及其影响因素。结果表明:性别、受教育程度、家庭林果耕地面积、农户对特色林果业减贫效果的预期、政府扶持情况等因素对贫困农户收入变化具有显著影响;性别、受教育程度、农户对特色林果业减贫效果的预期等因素对贫困农户创收能力具有显著影响;农户收入和创收能力处于稳健上升状态,特色林果业的扶贫效果较好。因此,应加快健全特色林果业扶贫利益联结的机制,拓宽特色林果业扶贫的方式,增强农户受教育程度及农业技术推广能力。
⑴ Background-- Because of its remoteness,the arid zone in northwest are not only high in incidence of poverty,deep in degree of poverty,but also weak in basic conditions,and difficult to get rid of poverty.Therefore,this study takes the characteristic forest and fruit industry as the representative object of industry poverty alleviation,selects Aksu Prefecture of Xinjiang as the demonstration area,evaluates on the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in this area,and puts forward some suggestions to enhance the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry.⑵ Methods-- Explanatory variables representing individual characteristics and planting characteristics of poor farmers in forest and fruit cultivation are reasonably selected.According to the questionnaire data of 485 poor fruit farmers in Aksu Prefecture,this paper adopts Logistic regression model to empirically analyze the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry and its influencing factors from two aspects of farmers income status and farmers income generation capacity.⑶ Results-- With the increase of poverty alleviation measures of forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture,farmers income and income generation capacity are all in a steady rising state,but there is still much room for improvement.Among them:gender,the level of education,the number of households working in agriculture,family forest fruit planting area,and farmers expectation of poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry have significant influence on the confidence level of farmers income respectively;gender,education level,and farmers expectation of poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry have significant influence on the confidence level of farmers income generation capacity;partially explained variables are in the opposite direction as expected which is due to the fact that the local people have been in poor areas for a long time and the life quality of farmers is low.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions-- Through the actual situation and statistical descriptive analysis in Aksu Prefecture,it can be concluded that the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture is better,but there are still some problems,such as the limited poverty alleviation mode of characteristic forest and fruit industry;the low education level of poor households,face engineering,formalism and so on.In order to enhance the poverty alleviation effect of characteristic forest and fruit industry in the poverty-stricken areas of northwest China,it is proposed to speed up the cultivation of new peasant economic cooperation organizations,broaden the ways of poverty alleviation of characteristic forest and fruit industry,and strengthen the agricultural technology extension of characteristic forest and fruit industry in Aksu Prefecture by combining with the actual situation in Aksu Prefecture so as to not only promote the development of local economy to help local poor households to get rid of poverty,but also provide experience for other poor areas.
作者
刘俊男
宋玉兰
LIU Junnan;SONG Yulan(School of Economics and Business,Xinjiang Agricultural University,Urumqi 830052 China)
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2019年第2期164-171,共8页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
新疆维吾尔自治区自然科学基金(201703217)
关键词
特色林果业
扶贫效果
LOGISTIC回归模型
characteristic forest and fruit industry
poverty alleviation effect
Logistic regression model
