“百年未有之大变局”:重识中国与世界的关键被引量：25

Profound Changes Unseen in a Century——The Keypoint of Reconsideration of China and the World

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摘要 2018年6月,习近平在中央外事工作会议上深刻指出,当前,我国处于近代以来最好的发展时期,世界处于百年未有之大变局,两者同步交织、相互激荡为了解读“百年未有之大变局”这一重要命题,《探索与争鸣》编辑部与华东政法大学政治学研究院联合组织了专题研讨,参加研讨的学者们普遍认为,“大变局”的本质在于国际秩序的重塑,即基本上由美国为首的西方发达国家所主导的国际秩序,近年来发生了一系列剧烈变动与调整“大变局”的动力主要来自两个方面:一方面,主导建立战后国际秩序的美国接连“退群”,大搞单边主义和保护主义,破坏多边贸易体制和全球治理体系,给全球带来剧烈冲击与震荡;另一方面,以中国为代表的新兴经济体群体性崛起,并坚定维护多边主义和自由贸易原则,积极推进全球化良性健康发展,大力推动全球治理体系朝着更加公正合理的方向发展另外,蔡拓教授认为,非理性是当前全球大变局的症结所在;以理性的认知与战略回应非理性的认知与战略,是中国应对全球大变局的关键所在,赵可金教授指出,在全球大变局中,最突出的冲击是全球政治觉醒,其带来的世界秩序重构围绕着和平赤字、发展赤字、治理赤字展开,中国应该确立存量巩固、增量改革、智慧创新的国家战略张胜军教授认为,全球治理的全面政治化趋势正在打破我们对于全球治理的传统认知,未来的全球治理很可能是一种全新而又陌生的模式杨雪冬研究员认为,当今世界在发生深刻多样变化的同时,依然有许多不变的因素;变与不变的交织,使得当今世界异常复杂,产生诸多不确定性刘雪莲教授指出,全球治理体系面临转型,给中国的“有所作为”提供了机遇,而中国内在的发展需求也为中国参与全球治理提供了动力蔡翠红教授认为,网络空间崛起是全球大变局的重要驱动力,中国应充分利用自身在市场基础、技术创新、治理理念和话语权等方面的优势,进一步参与并推动网络空间治理进程高奇琦教授认为,目前的全球大变局是在第四次工业革命即智能革命的影响下发生的,中国要尽快在核心技术上形成突破,以抓住智能革命的机遇总之,大变局同时蕴含着机遇与挑战,未来还具有不确定性中国只有抓住机遇,化解挑战,在大变局中掌握主动权,才能推动变局朝着有利于中华民族复兴、有利于促进人类进步的方向发展. In June 2018, Xi Jinping profoundly pointed out at the Central Foreign Affairs Work Conference that China is in the best period of development since modern times, and the world is in an unprecedented change in a century. The two are intertwined and mutually agitated at the same time. In order to interpret the important proposition of "Great Change Unseen in a Century", we jointly organized a special seminar. Scholars who participated in the seminar generally believed that the essence of the "great change" lies in the reconstruction of the international order,that is, the international order led by the developed western countries which led by the United States. In recent years, a series of drastic changes and adjustments have taken place. The momentum of the great change mainly comes from two aspects. On the one hand, the United States, that lead the establishment of the post-war international order, has been withdrawing from the ranks, engaging in unilateralism and protectionism, and undermining the multilateral trading system and the global governance system. On the other hand, the emerging economies represented by China have risen as a group, and firmly uphold the principles of multilateralism and free trade to actively promote the sound and healthy development of globalization, vigorously promote the development of global governance system towards a more just and rational direction. Scholars pointed out that the great changes contain both opportunities and challenges, and the future is uncertain. Only by seizing the opportunity, resolving the challenge and grasping the initiative in the great change, can China promote the development of the great change in a direction conducive to the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the progress of mankind.