摘要
针对中国经济的持续高增长,许多学人感到迷惑不解。平均增长率高达10%以上,持续时间近30年,人均收入进入中高收入阶段后,仍能保持7%的增长水平;再加上经济增长数据之间的矛盾,像1997年、1998年、2008年、2009年、2014年的经济增长率与工业电力消耗增长率极不匹配、税收增长快于经济增长、地方GDP总和要高出国家GDP好几万亿等矛盾,许多东、西方学者的模型和观点都难以解释。用三变量模型计算出虚拟经济对经济增长的贡献率,就能容易解释中国经济的高增长、可持续以及个别年分的数据矛盾。根据计算,2000—2009年虚拟经济对经济增长的年平均贡献率为34%,2010以来,虚拟经济对经济增长的贡献率一直保持在30%以上,可是,1991—1998年,中国虚拟经济对经济增长的年平均贡献率为负的14.7%,说明在1991—1998年,我国的货币供应是不充分的。虚拟经济能否对经济增长作出贡献将成为宏观经济分析的重要课题。
China’s economic growth rates have overrun 10%thirty years in row.China’s economy maintains a growth rate of 7%in the middle and high income.China’s economic growth rates were in contradiction to its industry electric power demand growth rates,in 1997,1998,2008,2009,2014 year;The government revenue growth rates are more than GDP growth rates;The local GDP summation exceeds China’s GDP several trillion.Those contradictions are explained difficultly by existing models and points of view.We can explain these problems by the virtual economy making a contributions to GDP growth using the three-variable model.Our computing indicates that the virtual economy made an annual contribution rate of 34%to China’s economic growth between 2000 and 2009 year,and kept an annual contribution rate of 30%upwards since 2010 year,and did an annual contribution rate of negative 14.7%between 1991 and 1998.The result has shown that China’s money supply was inadequate between 1991 and 1998.It will be a important problem of macroeconomic analysis whether virtual economy can make a contribution to the economic growth.
作者
毛善成
MAO Shan-cheng(Huaiyin Institute of Technology,Huai'an Jiangsu,223003,China)
出处
《广义虚拟经济研究》
2018年第3期13-22,共10页
Research on the Generalized Virtual Economy
关键词
虚拟经济
经济增长
三变量模型
增长数据矛盾
virtual economy
economic growth
three-variable model
contributions among growth rates
