摘要
我国西部地区城市自然气候系统敏感且脆弱,主动适应能力处于落后阶段,应对气候变化风险阻力大。文章以西部地区适应型试点城市和个别省会城市作为主要研究对象,参考"压力—状态—响应"(PSR)环境指标框架构建评价指标体系,利用综合评价法即层次分析法和逼近理想解排序法建立评价模型,根据综合指数评价结果将城市的适应能力划分为Ⅰ级低水平、Ⅱ级中等水平和Ⅲ级高水平。结果表明:西部地区城市气候变化适应能力整体为Ⅱ级中等水平,城市化进程相对稳定,城市状态指数基本分布在中等水平,压力层的适应能力指数相对状态指数的变化具有时间上的差异,响应指数变化具有滞后性;相对于西北地区,西南地区城市所面临的气候变化压力更具有不稳定性,而响应能力较好;根据适应能力指数等级将城市适应能力类型分为"初阶型""中阶型"和"高阶型"。
Comparing with the urban climate change adaptive capacity in China’s eastern and central areas, it was relatively low in Western China owing to its eco-environment vulnerability and sensibility of natural system. This study chose the adaptive pilot cities and individual provincial capital cities in Western China as the main research object. 16 indicators were selected to build the Evaluation Index System, which was refered by the "Press-State-Response"(PSR) framework. Evaluation model was built by using the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and the expert scoring method as well as Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an Ideal Solution(TOPSIS). According to results of the Adaptation Capability Index, it was divided into three levels, namely, LevelⅠ, LevelⅡ and LevelⅢ. The urban climate change adaptability in Western China concluded as follow: The urban climate change adaptation capability was generally LevelⅡ in Western China, in which the process of urbanization was relatively stable and the urban status index was basically distributed at the medium level. Compared with the status index, the pressure index had a temporal difference, while, the response index had a hysteresis. Compared with the climate change pressures faced by cities in Northwest China, it was more unstable in Southwest China. However, the response capability was better in Southwest China. There were three stages of urban climate change adaptation capability in Western China, namely, the primary stage, the middle stage and the advanced stage.
作者
刘霞飞
曲建升
刘莉娜
李恒吉
裴惠娟
曾静静
LIU Xiafei;QU Jiansheng;LIU Lina;LI Hengji;PEI Huijuan;ZENG Jingjing(College of Earth Environmental Sciences/Key Laboratory of Western China's Environment Systems (Ministry of Education),Lanzhou University,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China;Lanzhou Literature and In formation Center,Chinese Academy of Science,Lanzhou Gansu 730000,China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2019年第4期104-110,共7页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0602803)
"甘肃省气候适应型城市建设探索"项目
关键词
气候变化
适应能力
城市
PSR框架
综合评价法
指标体系
climate change
adaptation capability
city
PSR framework
comprehensive evaluation
index system
