摘要
为了对长距离引水工程运行的真实安全状态进行全面和客观的评价,充分考虑影响其运行安全的风险因子的随机性和模糊性,分析确定了工程运行安全风险评价指标体系,建立了五等评价标准的评语集模型,采用Delphi法对各指标进行赋权。在此基础上,应用灰色关联度理论对专家赋权值的差异性进行分析,确定每个专家赋权值对总体权重趋势的关联度,并以此作为诱导因子,结合诱导有序加权平均(IOWA)算子求出各个指标的权重值,然后基于云模型理论建立了长距离引水工程运行安全风险评价模型。以南水北调中线工程为例进行评价分析,结果表明:工程风险处于基本正常状态,水文风险、水质污染风险、社会风险、经济风险和运行调度风险处于基本正常与正常状态之间;工程运行安全风险总体处于基本正常状态。研究成果对实际工程运行安全风险管理工作有一定的借鉴作用,对类似工程的安全性综合评价具有可推广应用价值。
In order to comprehensively and objectively assess the true status of the operation safety of the long-distance water transfer project, the safety risk assessment index system is analyzed and determined through fully considering the randomness and fuzziness of the risk factor affecting its operationsafety, and then a comment-set model with five grades of evaluation criteria is established herein, while all the indexes concerned are weighted with Delphi method. On the basis of this, the differenceamong the values of all the expert weights are analyzed with gray correlation degree theory for determining the degree of the correlation of each expert weight value to the overall weight trend, which is taken as the inducing factor and combined with the induced ordered weighted average(IOWA) operator for finding out the weight values of all the indexes, and then an operation safety risk assessment model for the long-distance water transfer project is established. Taking the mid-route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project as the case for the analysis and assessment, the result shows that the risk of the project is basically in a normal status with the hydrological risk, water pollution risk, social risk, economic risk and operation dispatching risk between basically normal status and normal status, thus the operation risk of the project is generally in a normal status. The study result has a certain referential effect on the operation safety management of the actual project concerned, and then has a popularizable and applicable value for the comprehensive assessment made on the safety of the similar project as well.
作者
聂相田
范天雨
董浩
王博
NIE Xiangtian;FAN Tianyu;DONG Hao;WANG Bo(School of Water Conservancy, North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China;Collaborative Innovation Center of Water Resources Efficient Utilization and Protection Engineering, Zhengzhou 450046, Henan, China;Henan Key Laboratory of Water Environment Simulation and Treatment, Zhengzhou 450046 , Henan, China;Shandong Taishan Pumped Storage Power Station Co. , Ltd. , Taian 271000, Shandong, China)
出处
《水利水电技术》
北大核心
2019年第2期151-160,共10页
Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering
基金
河南省高等学校重点科研项目"大坝混凝土施工质量控制新技术研究"(17B570003)
国家自然科学基金项目"基于接力链与质量损益函数的大坝混凝土施工质量控制机理研究"(51709116)
华北水利水电大学高层次人才科研启动项目(10030)
关键词
引水工程
IOWA
云模型
隶属度
综合评价
water transfer project
IOWA
cloud model
membership degree
comprehensive assessment
