摘要
为了使降雨频率估算成果能够为涉水各行业的规划设计以及洪涝灾害预警和风险分析服务,并为大数据分析奠定科学基础,以厦门地区为例,首次使用包括水文及气象系统雨量站的年最大历史降雨资料,应用水文气象地区线性矩法以及暴雨高风险区划理论和技术,编制厦门地区降雨频率图集和暴雨高风险区划图集,研究降雨频率估计值的数字化以及暴雨高风险区划的可视化展示,建立估算成果的网络共享平台。考虑到暴雨频率估计值的不确定性,首次提供不同时段、不同重现期下频率估计值90%的置信区间,为风险分析提供科学依据。计算结果表明,厦门市东北部为暴雨高风险区;实际资料分析表明,厦门市西北角也可能存在一个暴雨高风险区,但是由于站点过少以及资料序列长度不够,建议今后资料充裕时进一步分析,这将对该地区雨量站的增设起到指导作用。
Precipitation frequency atlas & rainstorm high-risk regionalization atlas of Xiamen were established through utilizing the largest historical rainfall data from hydrological and meteorological stations for the first time and application of hydrometeorological homogeneous region linear moment method and rainstorm high-risk regionalization theory and technology. The work aimed to make the results of precipitation frequency estimation serve for the planning, design, flood disaster warning and risk analysis of various industries involved in water, and lay a scientific foundation for big data analysis in Xiamen. The precipitation frequency estimation was digitalized and the rainstorm high-risk regionalization was visualized, and a network sharing platform for the estimation results was established. Considering the uncertainties of the estimated precipitation frequency, the 90% confidence intervals for each period were provided to lay a scientific basis for risk analysis. The results indicated that the northeast of Xiamen was a rainstorm high-risk area. The analysis of actual data showed that the northwest of Xiamen was also a potential rainstorm high-risk area. However, due to the small number of stations and insufficient data sequence length, further analysis was suggested in the future when abundant data were available, which would play a guiding role in the establishment of rain stations in this region.
作者
商慧
林炳章
徐磊
SHANG Hui;LIN Bing-zhang;XU Lei(School of Applied Meterology, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 , China;Applied Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 , China;OPD < Zhuhai > Technology Co. Ltd., Zhuhai 519000 , China)
出处
《中国给水排水》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期131-138,共8页
China Water & Wastewater
关键词
降雨频率图集
暴雨高风险区划
地区线性矩法
水文气象资料
水文气象一致区
置信区间
网络可视化共享平台
precipitation frequency atlas
rainstonn high-risk regionalization
regional linear moment method
hydrometeorological data
hydrometeorological homogeneous region
confidence interval
web-based visualization platform
