摘要
为评估覆冰灾害对电网可能的风险,建立一个基于气象信息的电网冰灾风险评估模型。首先利用模糊理论建立基于气象信息的线路覆冰厚度预测模型,给出模糊推理系统各项参数具体的确定过程。其次分析风力载荷,冰力载荷对线路失效率影响,讨论融冰装置的投入情况与线路覆冰厚度关系,同时确定冰灾对线路修复时间的影响。最后给定风险指标,综合上述内容建立电网冰灾风险评估模型。算例仿真结果表明,覆冰厚度预测值与实际值的误差小于4 mm,覆冰厚度预测模型可行且有效;冰灾风险评估模型综合考虑了多因素对电网冰灾风险的影响,论证融冰机等措施的实行能极好降低冰灾风险,并通过分析风险损失费用,确定最优初始融冰厚度。
To evaluate risk of ice disaster for power system, a model based on weather data is made for risk evaluation. The ice prediction fuzzy logic model is built at first. Firstly, the prediction model of ice cover thickness was established by using fuzzy theory. Then the influence of ice cover thickness and ice melting device on line failure efficiency and line repair time was analyzed. Finally, the risk assessment model of ice disaster was established comprehensively. The simulation results show that the error between the predicted value and the actual one is less than 4mm, and the prediction model is feasible and effective. The risk assessment model takes into account the influence of many factors on the ice disaster risk of power grid.
作者
卢锦玲
朱墨
LU Jinling;ZHU Mo(School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, North China ElectricPower University, Baoding 071003, China)
出处
《电力科学与工程》
2019年第3期37-44,共8页
Electric Power Science and Engineering
关键词
风险评估
模糊推理
覆冰
输电线路
融冰机
risk evaluation
fuzzy logic
ice
transmission line
de-icing machine
