摘要
原产于南美洲的牛膝菊(Galinsoga parviflora)在我国已造成大面积入侵,然而当前尚不清楚该种在中国的适生区范围,以及气候变化对其适生区分布产生的影响。本研究利用最大熵模型(MaxEnt)分析了在当前(2000s)气候条件下该入侵种在中国的适生区范围,以及在气候变化背景下其未来(2050s和2080s)的适生区变化。模型受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)达0.804,模拟效果良好。影响牛膝菊分布的环境因子主要为温度(包括bio_1、bio_4、bio_6、bio_7、bio_9、bio_10和bio_11)。模型结果显示,牛膝菊的极高适生区主要集中在西南地区的云南、贵州、四川、福建和台湾,这也正是该种目前在中国危害最严重的地区。气候变化将会导致其在广东、广西和华北地区的适生区出现缩减,甚至消失;而其适生区的北界将进一步向高纬度地区移动。总体而言,到本世纪末(2080s),其在中国的适生区面积将随着气候变化而呈现减小趋势。当前牛膝菊在中国的潜在入侵区域较大,该种对我国青藏高原以东广大地区的入侵潜力巨大,但是其未来的入侵进程可能受到气候变化的抑制。
Galinsoga parviflora is an annual herbaceous plant originating in South America, and has caused great harm to agriculture in China. However, the distribution and influence of this invader are poorly documented yet. Besides, it is still unclear how the changing climate will affect the expansion of G. parviflora in China. With these questions in mind, we studied the effects of climate change on its future geographical distributions in China using maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model based on the climatic data lately released by the 5 th report of IPCC. We built MaxEnt models to predict the potential distribution areas of G. parviflora under current and future (2050s and 2080s) climatic scenarios, using six least correlated climatic variables and 11228 occurrences. Finally, the MaxEnt prediction achieved a high accuracy of statistically significant AUC value of 0.804, and showed that the distribution of G. parviflora was mainly influenced by temperature (i.e., bio_1, bio_4, bio_6, bio_7, bio_9, bio_10 and bio_11). The results showed that high suitable areas for G. parviflora mainly located in Yunnan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Fujian and Taiwan. These areas are severely influenced by G. parviflora currently. In the context of climate change, its suitable area in China tends to contract in the future (2050s and 2080s). Its suitable area tends to disappear in southern and northern China, but the north edge of its suitable area would further expand into areas with high latitude. Overall, by the end of the century, its suitable area will be reduced and move northward in China. Our study suggests that G. parviflora has high invasion potential on the east of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China;however, to some extent, the ongoing climate change would inhibit its expansion in China.
作者
毕晓琼
赵斯
王林
刘刚
李明珠
BI Xiaoqiong;ZHAO Si;WANG Lin;LIU Gang;LI Mingzhu(School of Life Sciences, Shaanxi Normal University, Xi′an 710119, Shaanxi, China)
出处
《陕西师范大学学报（自然科学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第2期70-75,共6页
Journal of Shaanxi Normal University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金青年项目(31500415
31600445)
陕西省自然科学基础研究计划(2015JQ3070
2016JQ3009)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(GK201703036)
关键词
牛膝菊
MaxEnt模型
潜在分布区
生物入侵
Galinsoga parviflora
MaxEnt model
potential distribution
biological invasion
