摘要
在增加值核算框架下,依据价值来源地和价值吸收地原则对产品增加值进行分解,解释"贸易—经济联动之谜",经验研究发现,增加值贸易对经济联动存在显著的正向推动作用,但在轮轴国家与辐条国家中表现出非对称性,轮轴国家发挥着"枢纽作用"。凝聚子群分析表明,凝聚子群与增加值贸易具有互补性,当双边国家属于同一子群时,其增加值贸易强度对经济联动的影响趋强。我国实施非均衡开放战略,积极推进与轮轴国家间的增加值连接,利用经济体增长的关联效应,可实现向高收入经济体增长的收敛。与此同时,利用"一带一路"贸易网络核心节点的优势,继续推动"一带一路"建设,为沿线国家提供更多融入全球增加值分工体系的通道,构建合作共赢、联动发展的全球经济生态。
Using an added value accounting framework,we conducted empirical research to analyze the added value of products in accordance with the principle of value-sourcing and value-absorption areas and to decode the“riddle of the coupling of trade and the economy.”As our study shows,value-added trade can provide a significant positive stimulus for economic coupling,but it is marked by asymmetry between hub and spoke countries,with the former having a pivotal role.Our analysis of cohesive subgroups indicates that cohesive subgroups and value-added trade are complementary.When bilateral countries belong to the same subgroup,the intensity of their value-added trade exerts an increasing influence on economic coupling.China has adopted a non-equilibrium opening up strategy and has actively boosted value-added coupling with hub countries;its utilization of the associated effects of economic growth will enable it to achieve convergence with the growth of high-income economies.At the same time,China is taking advantage of core linkages in the Belt and Road trade network,continuing to boost Belt and Road construction,providing channels for countries along the Belt and Road to integrate into the global value-added system of division of labor,and building a global economic environment that features win-win collaboration and the development of linkages.
出处
《中国社会科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期26-48,204,205,共25页
Social Sciences in China
基金
教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划资助项目"经济转型期稳定物价的货币政策"(IRT_17R52)
教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目"TPP外部约束下我国融入国际价值链分工战略研究"(16JZD019)
教育部人文社会科学研究基地重大项目"长江三角洲全面建设小康社会中的开放发展研究"(16JJD790025)
江苏高校哲学社会科学研究重点项目"增加值贸易视角下中国制造对全球经济大稳健的影响研究"(2018SJZDI093)阶段性成果
