摘要
基于2017年"红黄蓝幼儿园虐童事件"的微博数据、网络舆情传播系统动力学原理及其SEIR模型的仿真模拟研究表明:政府干预能够有效影响各类网民群体间的数量变化及其舆情走势。在此基础上通过设置对照参数实验组,得到不同政府干预情形下的网络舆情演化趋势。进一步运用智能计算软件Maple对最佳效用函数进行求值,验证政府最优控制模型的有效性,结果表明当调控系数m_1~*分别为0.0735、0.0299时,政府舆情引导效用最佳。
The microblog data of the "child abuse incident in Red, Yellow and Blue Kindergarten" in 2017, the dynamic principle of network public opinion communication system and the simulation of SEIR model show that government intervention can effectively influence the quantity change and public opinion trend among various groups of netizens. On this basis, through setting up the experimental group of control parameters, we can get the evolution trend of network public opinion in different situations of government intervention. Furthermore, the best utility function is evaluated by using the intelligent computing software Maple to verify the validity of the government optimal control model. The results show that when the intervention coefficient is m 1 *=0.0735, m 2 *=0.0299, the government guidance of public opinion is the best.
作者
李燕凌
刘科呈
LI Yanling;LIU Kecheng(School of Public Administration and Law, Hunan Agricultural University, Changsha 410128, China)
出处
《湖南农业大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2019年第2期68-75,共8页
Journal of Hunan Agricultural University(Social Sciences)
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71874052)
国家社科基金青年项目(16CGL062)
关键词
网络舆情
政府干预
最优策略
虐童事件
红黄蓝幼儿园
network public opinion
government intervention
optimal strategy
child abuse event
Red,Yellow and Blue Kindergarten
