摘要
单体滑坡定量风险评价一直是滑坡研究领域的重点及难点,特别是滑坡危险程度和易损性的确定。本文以湖北宣恩县干坝滑坡为例,进行降雨型滑坡定量风险评价研究;在降雨极值分析的基础上,计算不同降雨重现期下滑坡渗流场和稳定性变化规律;在滑坡影响范围分析的基础上,采用定性方法确定不同区域承灾体的易损性,定量分析不同降雨重现期下逐个建筑物和室内人员风险,通过建立人口和财产总风险与年超越概率关系曲线计算滑坡年风险;通过三维数字模型展示建筑物和室内人员在不同降雨工况下的风险,利于主管部门对单体滑坡的风险管控。
Individual landslide risk is always difficult issuein landslide research, especially in the quantitative analysis of landslide hazard and vulnerability. The Ganba landslide in Xuanen country was chosen as a case to study quantitative risk of rainfall-induced landslide. Based on the extreme analysis of rainfall,the seepage field and landslide stability were simulated in different rainfall return period to calculate landslide probability.The vulnerability of elements in the affecting range of the landslide was determined by qualitative method.The total risk and annual risk of economic risk and personnel risk were analyzed quantitatively under different rainfall conditions. The risk distribution of buildings and populationwas directly shown in the 3D model in ARCGIS platform for convenient management.
作者
徐勇
连志鹏
郭春迎
XU Yong;LIAN Zhi-Peng;GUO Chun-Ying(Wuhan Centre of China Geological Survey, Wuhan 430205)
出处
《华南地质与矿产》
CAS
2018年第4期294-301,共8页
Geology and Mineral Resources of South China
基金
中国地质调查局项目"武陵山区湘西北城镇地质灾害调查"(DD20160275)
国家自然科学青年基金项目(41702383)
三峡后续工作地质灾害防治项目(0001212019CC60014)资助
关键词
降雨型滑坡
单体滑坡风险
滑坡年风险
易损性
Rainfall-induced landslide
individual landslide risk
annuallandslide risk
Vulnerability
