摘要
基于2014—2017年兰炼宾馆、生物制品所、职工医院、铁路设计院4个国控站的监测数据,通过分析兰州市主城臭氧浓度变化时间分布特征以及气象指标对臭氧浓度的影响关系,进而通过遗传算法得到最优的气象因子范围,以此预测O_(3_8h)浓度的超标情况。结果表明:2014—2017年兰州市主城臭氧污染主要集中在4—8月,且每日14—16时处于高值区;对臭氧浓度变化起主导作用的气象因素有净地表太阳辐射、边界层高度、距地面2 m温度、西风、850 hPa相对湿度以及850 hPa垂直速度;采用遗传算法得到最优气象因子范围,据此判断气象条件是否处于高影响状态:当此时刻气象条件处于高影响状态时,下一时刻O_(3_8h)超标(O_(3_8h)大于160μg·m^(-3))概率为42. 31%,O_(3_8h)超过130μg·m^(-3)的概率为99. 04%;当此时刻气象条件处于低影响状态时,下一时刻O_(3_8h)未超标概率为99. 87%。因此,在兰州市主城臭氧防治中,首先需要对未来的气象条件进行判断,进而在09时前人为操控一些主要气象因子或者控制臭氧前体物浓度,从而抑制臭氧浓度在09—14时快速上升,防止臭氧浓度超标。
Based on the monitoring data from the four state-controlled stations of Lanlian Hotel,Biological Products Institute,Staff Hospital and Railway Design Institute from 2014 to 2017,this paper analyzed the time distribution characteristics of ozone concentration and the influence of meteorological indicators on ozone concentration over Lanzhou city.The optimal meteorological factor range was obtained by a genetic algorithm to predict the excessive O 3_8h concentration.The results show that from 2014 to 2017,the higher ozone pollution over the main city of Lanzhou mainly occurs in the period of April to August during which a high value ranges between 14:00 to 16:00 every day.The meteorological factors that play a leading role in the change of ozone concentration are the net surface solar radiation,height of boundary layer,2 m temperature,westerly wind,relative humidity and vertical velocity at 850 hPa.The range of the optimal meteorological factors obtained by the genetic algorithm is used to identify whether the meteorological conditions are in a high-impact state.At time when the meteorological conditions are in a high-impact state,the probability of O 3_8h exceeding the standard value ( O 3_8h greater than 160 ug · m ^-3 ) at the next time is 42.31%,and the probability of O 3_8h exceeding 130 ug · m ^-3 is 99.04%.In contrast,at the time when the meteorological conditions are in a low-impact state,the probability of O 3_8h not exceeding the standard at the next time is 99.87%.Therefore,in the main city of Lanzhou,it is necessary to identify the future meteorological conditions first,and then manually control some major meteorological factors or control the concentration of ozone precursors before 09:00 to prevent the rapid rise of ozone concentration at 09:00-14:00 and prevent the ozone concentration from exceeding the standard level.
作者
陈培章
陈道劲
CHEN Pei-zhang;CHEN Dao-jin(Chongqing Normal University,Chongqing 401331,China;Chongqing Guangruida Technology Co.,Ltd,Chongqing 401121,China;Chongqing Meteorological Observatory,Chongqing 401147,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2019年第2期46-54,共9页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
兰州市大气污染防治大数据应用研究(LHDQ(2018)-004)项目资助
关键词
臭氧浓度
气象因子
相关性分析
遗传算法
Ozone concentration
Meteorological factors
Correlation analysis
Genetic algorithm
