摘要
南海局势在2016年下半年以来趋稳转圜,但南海争端的复杂性决定了其发酵的可能性仍然比较大。从未来趋势看,南海争端将会呈现以下态势:随着中国在南海维权力度的加大,美国、日本等域外大国将会继续加强对南海争端的介入,南海争端大国政治化的趋势更加明显;南海仲裁案的消极影响将无法完全消除,南海争端法律斗争更加白热化。为中国的和平发展营造良好的环境仍然是周边外交政策的首要目标,因此要将南海政策放在中国周边外交整体布局之下进行考量,实现维权与维稳的平衡。具体来说,继续倡议"搁置争议、共同开发",并争取有所突破;加大推进"双轨策略"的力度;在东南亚打造战略支点国家。
The situation of SCS has been stabilizing since the second half of 2016,but its complexity has determined that it is still likely to ferment.The future trends of SCS will be as following:with the strengthening of China’s safeguarding rights,outside powers including the US,Japan will strengthen to intervene SCS,resulting in more fiercer"powers game"in SCS;the negative effect of"SCS arbitration"will ferment,legal game of SCS will be fiercer.To create a good neighboring circumstance is still the main objective of China’s periphery diplomacyfor China’s peaceful development.Therefore,China should take the policy towards SCS in the overall surrounding of periphery diplomacy to consideration.to continue to advance"Shelving Disputes and Joint Development",trying to make a breakthrough;to intensify efforts to implement"dual-track strategy"and to win strategic support of some member countries of ASEAN.
出处
《印度洋经济体研究》
2018年第6期56-66,136,137,共13页
Indian Ocean Economic and Political Review
基金
国家社科基金项目"东盟非南海主权声索国对南海争端的态度
反应及我国的对策研究"(项目编号:16BGJ049)阶段性成果
关键词
南海争端
域外大国介入
法律斗争
中国的政策
South China Sea Dispute
the Intervention of Outside Powers
Struggles at the Level of International Law
China s Policy
