摘要
对海河流域1956-2000年年径流及季节性径流的变化趋势及突变点进行分析,并研究了气候变化和人类活动对径流变化造成的影响。研究结果表明,年尺度及季尺度径流量均表现出显著的减少趋势,突变点均出现在1979年;人类活动对径流变化的影响大于气候变化;对于年径流量的变化,气候变化的贡献率占40. 89%,人类活动占59. 11%;对于季度径流量的变化,气候变化的贡献率分别为43. 53%(雨季)和7. 15%(旱季),人类活动的贡献率分别为56. 47%(雨季)和92. 85%(旱季);在人类活动的影响下,水库调节比土地利用变化所占比例更大,其在年径流变化中占38. 86%,而土地利用变化仅占20. 26%;对于季节性径流量的变化,水库调节的贡献率分别为39. 48%(雨季)和40. 71%(旱季),而土地利用变化的贡献率分别为16. 99%(雨季)和52. 14%(旱季)。
This paper analyzes the change trend and abrupt change point of annual runoff and seasonal runoff in Haihe River Basin from 1956 to 2000,and studies the influence of climate change and human activities on runoff change.The research results show that the annual and seasonal runoff both show a significant decrease trend,and the abrupt change point occurred in 1979.The impact of human activities on runoff change is greater than that of climate change.For the change of annual runoff,the contribution rate of climate change is 40.89%,and that of human activities is 59.11%.For seasonal runoff changes,the contribution rate of climate change is 43.53%(rainy season) and 7.15%(dry season),and the contribution rate of human activities is 56.47%(rainy season) and 92.85%(dry season),respectively.Under the influence of human activities,reservoir regulation accounts for a larger proportion than land use change,accounting for 38.86% of annual runoff change,while land use change accounts for only 20.26%.For seasonal runoff changes,the contribution rates of reservoir regulation are 39.48%(rainy season) and 40.71%(dry season),while the contribution rates of land use changes are 16.99%(rainy season) and 52.14%(dry season),respectively.
作者
王磊
WANG Lei(Hebei Hengshui Hydrological and Water Resources Survey Bureau,Hengshui 053000,Hebei,China)
出处
《水利科技与经济》
2019年第4期49-55,共7页
Water Conservancy Science and Technology and Economy
关键词
气候变化
人类活动
径流量
climate variability
human activities
streamflow
