摘要
本文以2018年发生的中美贸易摩擦为背景,通过构建跨国投入产出网络模型刻画了关税冲击的传导机制。研究发现,关税冲击导致本国出口下降,同时加征的关税作为转移支付会提高外国的家庭收入并扩大本国消费品出口,此一负一正两种初始效应沿跨国投入产出网络向上游传导,最终形成负向的直接需求侧效应和正向的间接需求侧效应;关税冲击还通过影响相对价格增加下游行业的成本,这种效应沿跨国投入产出网络向下游传导,最终形成负向的供给侧资源再配置效应。在此基础上,本文就四轮关税加征对中美两国就业和福利的影响进行了模拟分析。结果表明,冲击在投入产出网络中的传导使得各行业关税升幅与就业损失之间存在不一致性。同时,虽然两国的总就业和福利均有所下降,但二者降幅在两国间存在非对称性,中国的福利损失高于美国,而美国就业下降的百分比高于中国。
Based on the trade friction between China and US in 2018, we establish a multinational general equilibrium model with input-output structure, using which the effects of tariff rate shock on output as well as employment and the transmission mechanism are well described. We exposit that change of tariff rates affects real output from both demand and supply sides. When network effect exists the demand effect propagates upstream which includes negative change of export volume and positive change of transfer payment while the supply effect refers to cost shock caused by change of price and it propagates downstream. We then run simulation to find out how employment and welfare of both countries react to the four runs of tariff increases. The result shows that the inconsistence between change of employment and tariff rate due to network effect is responsible for the imbalance change of employment in different industries. Finally as a result of this trade friction the total employment and welfare level decline in both China and US.
作者
齐鹰飞
LI Yuanfei
QI Yingfei(Dongbei University of Finance and Economics, 116025)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期83-95,共13页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金面上项目“石油价格冲击对中国宏观经济的交叠影响及其最优货币政策应对:基于全球视角的研究”(71573035)
教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“企业创新的财政资助政策优化研究:基于融资约束与政治关联视角”(15JJD790003)
关键词
投入产出网络
贸易摩擦
关税冲击
福利分析
Input-output Networks
Trade Frictions
Tariff Shocks
Welfare Analysis
