摘要
出口价格汇率传递是汇率影响贸易的中间环节,已成为研究汇率变动经济效应的重要基础。基于2000—2013年企业交易层面的海关数据库,本文从产品异质出发,探索中国出口产品价格的汇率传递率普遍高于发达国家的原因。本文根据出口厂商依市定价理论,从产品质量和产品的核心程度这两个分别代表企业间和企业内产品异质性的维度进行分析,研究结果表明,产品质量越高,产品在企业中的地位就越核心,其人民币汇率传递率也越低。进一步研究发现,人民币汇率下降对产品出口量产生正向的促进作用,尤其是对低价低质量产品更为有利,但这可能恶化本国的贸易条件;人民币汇率上升可能会对产品出口量产生负向的影响,但可以适当促进贸易结构的调整。在汇率波动加大的背景下,本文的结论对推动贸易稳定增长和经济高质量增长具有重要的参考意义。
As a link between exchange rate and trade, exchange rate pass-through is the basis for studying the economic effects of exchange rate fluctuations. Based on the customs database of business transaction-level data from 2000 to 2013, this paper proceeds from product heterogeneity and explores the underlying reason for higher RMB exchange rate pass-through in China than in developed countries. According to the pricing-to-market theory, this paper analyzes the product quality and the product s position in the company s product portfolio, which represent the product heterogeneity between firms and within firms respectively. The results show that the higher the product quality, or the more important the product is for the firm, the lower the exchange rate pass-through is. Further research has found that a lower RMB exchange rate has a positive effect on trade volume, especially for products of low prices and low quality, but may hurt gains from trade in the home country. In contrast, a higher RMB exchange rate may have a negative impact on trade volume, but can promote the adjustment of trade structure. Against the background of intensifying exchange rate fluctuations, this paper provides an important policy reference for promoting stable trade growth and high-quality economic growth.
作者
易靖韬
刘昕彤
蒙双
YI Jingtao;LIU Xintong;MENG Shuang(Renmin University of China, 100872;Central University of Finance and Economics, 100081)
出处
《财贸经济》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期112-126,共15页
Finance & Trade Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目“基于异质企业贸易模型研究中国多产品企业的国际化行为”(71873136)
关键词
汇率弹性
汇率传递
产品异质
人民币汇率
Exchange Rate Pass-Through
Exchange Rate Elasticity
Product Heterogeneity
RMB Exchange Rate
