摘要
采用主成分分析法和Markov残差灰色模型对京津冀物流能力进行评价和预测。综合研究表明,京津冀物流能力在2007年至2016年总体较为平稳,河北省近两年物流能力有所下降,北京市近五年物流能力有所起伏,天津市物流能力逐年提升,势头强劲。在未来五年,旅客周转量、客运量将成为制约河北省物流能力提升的重要指标,货运量、客运量将成为制约北京市物流能力提升的重要指标,邮电业务总量和货物周转量将成为制约天津市物流能力提升的重要指标。
This paper adopts the principal component analysis method and the Markov residual grey model to evaluate and predict the logistics capability of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei.Comprehensive research shows that the logistics capacities of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei are relatively stable from2007 to 2016.The logistics capacity of Hebei has declined in recent two years;the logistics capacity of Beijing has fluctuated in recent five years,and the logistics capability of Tianjin has increased year by year with a strong momentum.In the next five years,turnover of passenger traffic and passenger volume will become important indicators for Hebei province to enhance its logistics capability,freight volume and passenger traffic will become important factors that can restrict the promotion of logistics capacity of Beijing,and total volume of post and telecommunications services and turnover of freight traffic will become important index to restrict the improvement of Tianjin logistics capability.
作者
李林汉
岳一飞
田卫民
LI Lin-han;YUE Yi-fei;TIAN Wei-min(Research Center of Finance Innovation and Risk Management, Hebei Finance University,Baoding Hebei 071051, China;Coordinated Innovation Center For Sci-tech Finance of Heb&,Hebei Science and Technology Finance Key Laboratory, Baoding Hebei 071051, China)
出处
《北京交通大学学报（社会科学版）》
CSSCI
2019年第2期129-142,共14页
Journal of Beijing Jiaotong University(Social Sciences Edition)
基金
2017年度河北省金融创新与风险管理研究中心开放基金项目"京津冀地区绿色金融与产业结构升级"(2017JDKF015)
2018年度河北省科学技术厅软科学研究专项项目"京津冀流域土地资源与环境承载力的评价研究"(18454227)
关键词
马尔可夫残差灰色模型
主成分分析
京津冀物流能力
Markov Residual Grey
principal component analysis
logistics capability of Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei
