摘要
本文在Gopinath(2015)的国际贸易结算框架下,分析了人民币贸易加权汇率波动对中国进口商品价格指数(IPI)及居民消费价格指数(CPI)的影响。研究发现,中国IPI对人民币汇率波动较敏感,若人民币汇率当月贬值10%,则IPI未来一个月和一个季度内分别会同比提高约10和10.65个百分点;通过投入产出表测算,由于中国经济体量较大,进口商品进入居民篮子的总比率仅为12.27%,CPI对汇率波动的敏感程度低于IPI,若人民币汇率当月贬值10%,则CPI未来一个月和一个季度内分别会同比提高约1.27和1.35个百分点。若能提高人民币在进口贸易中的使用比例,则可降低中国IPI对人民币汇率波动的敏感程度,减轻美国加息的溢出效应,提升中国货币政策的独立性。
We analyze trade weighted renminbi(RMB) exchange rate pass through into Chinese import price index(IPI) and Chinese consumer price index(CPI) based on the international price system proposed in the Gopinath’s research(2015). Our research indicates that the Chinese IPI is sensitive to the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, if RMB depreciates 10% to other currencies in a month, the Chinese IPI will increase 10% in one month and 10.65% in one quarter. Based on the Chinese input-output tables, China has a huge domestic economy and the import intermediate goods and import final goods are only 12.27% in the Chinese consumer basket. Therefore, Chinese CPI is insensitive to the RMB exchange rate fluctuations, If RMB depreciates 10% to other currencies in a month, the Chinese CPI will increase 1.27% in one month and 1.35% in one quarter. If we can expand the RMB use in the international trade pricing system, the Chinese IPI will be less sensitive to the RMB exchange rate fluctuations. The increasing usage of RMB alleviates the spillover effect from the US contractionary monetary policy and also strengthens the independence of Chinese monetary policy.
作者
陈新禹
CHEN Xinyu(Department of Economics,Columbia University,New York NY 10025,USA)
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第3期83-91,共9页
Modern Economic Science
关键词
汇率
进口价格指数
消费者价格指数
人民币结算比例
汇率波动
溢出效应
货币政策
Exchange rate
Import price index
Consumer price index
Proportion of RMB use
Exchange rate fluctuations
Spillover effect
Monetary policy
