摘要
借鉴Hummels和Klenow的三元边际分析框架,采用2000~2016年中国对东南亚国家的农产品贸易数据,研究了“一带一路”背景下中国对东南亚国家农产品出口三元边际特征及其影响因素。研究结果表明:中国对东南亚国家农产品出口贸易波动主要来源于出口农产品数量边际变动,农产品出口扩展边际和价格边际的贡献相对较小;不同时期,扩展边际、价格边际和数量边际对中国出口东南亚不同国家农产品贸易波动的贡献存在差异;从影响因素来看,经济规模、收入水平、生产效率、地理距离和外部冲击是影响三元边际的重要因素,但不同因素对扩展边际、价格边际和数量边际的影响大小和方向不尽相同;由此提出了加大新产品引进和开发力度,提高出口农产品附加值,深化区域合作机制等建议。
Using the data of agricultural trade between China and Southeast Asian countries from 2000 to 2016, this paper studies the ternary margins characteristics and the influencing factors of China's export of agricultural products to Southeast Asian countries based on the analytical framework of Hummels and Klenow under the background of The Belt and Road. The results show that:(1) the fluctuation of China's agricultural exports to Southeast Asian countries is mainly caused by marginal changes in the quantity of agricultural products, while the contribution of exten-sion margin and price margin of agricultural exports are relatively small;(2) in different periods, the extension marginal, price margin and quantity margin have different contributions to the fluctuation of China's exports to different countries in Southeast Asia;(3) as to the influencing factors, the economic scale, the income level, the production efficiency, the geographical distance and the external impact are the important factors that af-fect the ternary margins, but the levels and directions of these influencing factors on extension margin, price margin and quantity margin are not the same. Based on these analyses, this paper puts forward some suggestions, such as strengthen the introduction and development of new products, in-crease the added value of agricultural products exported, deepen the regional cooperation mechanism.
作者
丁存振
肖海峰
Ding Cunzhen;Xiao Haifeng(College of Economics and Management,China Agricultural University,Beijing 100083,China)
出处
《当代经济管理》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期57-65,共9页
Contemporary Economic Management
基金
农业部和财政部国家现代农业产业技术体系项目(CARS-39-22)
关键词
"一带一路"
中国
东南亚
农产品出口
三元边际
影响因素
the Belt and Road
China
Southeast Asia
export of agricultural product
ternary margins
influencing factors
