摘要
基于2009年7月1日至2018年11月30日邢台市三级综合医院的脑卒中(脑梗塞、脑出血)住院患者的临床资料,结合同期13种气象要素,研究分析诱发脑卒中疾病的主要气象因素为气温、气压和风速。应用SPSS25.0统计软件中Logistic回归方法建立分级预测预警模型,实际检验脑出血预报准确率达98.6%,脑梗塞预报准确率达99.2%,脑卒中预报准确率达95.3%。分级预警模型中脑梗塞、脑卒中发病人数大于或等于2人时预测准确率超过90%。此研究为邢台地区防治脑卒中疾病提供合理依据,为开展精细化医疗气象服务提供重要参考。
Based on the clinical data of inpatients with stroke (cerebral infarction and cerebral hemorrhage) from July 1, 2009 to November 30, 2018 in 3-grade general hospitals of Xingtai City, combined with 13 meteorological factors in the same period, the main meteorological factors inducing stroke diseases were studied and analyzed, including temperature, air pressure and wind speed. The Logistic regression method of SPSS 25.0 statistical software was used to establish a hierarchical forecasting and early warning model. The actual test results showed that the accuracy rate of forecasting cerebral hemorrhage was 98.6%, the accuracy rate of forecasting cerebral infarction was 99.2%, and the accuracy rate of forecasting stroke was 95.3%. When the number of patients with cerebral infarction and stroke is more than or equal to 2, the accuracy of prediction in the graded early warning model is more than 90%. This study provides a reasonable basis for the prevention and treatment of stroke diseases in Xingtai Area, and provides an important reference for fine medical meteorological services.
出处
《大众科技》
2019年第5期151-153,共3页
Popular Science & Technology
基金
邢台市气象局青年基金项目“邢台地区气象因素对脑卒中发病影响”(18xtky08)
关键词
气象因素
脑出血
脑梗塞
脑卒中
预警模型
气象服务
meteorological factors
cerebral hemorrhage
cerebral infarction
stroke
early-warning model
meteorological service
