摘要
为应对全球气候变化趋势,提高黑龙江省玉米病虫害防控能力,利用黑龙江省1990-2015年玉米生长全生育期的气象、植保观测资料,通过数理统计、距平分析、相关分析等方法,研究了黑龙江省气候变化对玉米病虫害发生的影响。结果表明:黑龙江省玉米全生育期平均气温呈上升趋势,增率为1.89℃·10a-1,降水和日照的变化波动性较大,但呈现了明显的周期性,趋势变率达到为-10.8mm·10a-1和-21.7h·10a-1;同时,玉米病害和虫害发生面积的上升趋势速率达到101.21万hm2·10a-1和206.57万hm2次·10a-1,自2000年以后,大小斑病发生面积比例不断增长,已占病害发生面积的60%以上,虫害受灾面积超过500万hm2次·a-1,虫害发生种类的复杂性、严峻性日趋严重。玉米全生育期温度变化是玉米病虫害发生的主要控制因子之一,与丝黑穗病、玉米螟、地下虫害显著正相关(P<0.05),降水与玉米大小斑病发生极显著正相关(P<0.01),而玉米病虫害发生面积频次占总播种面积比例每上升1%,玉米平均单产将降低3.98kg·hm^-2。
In order to cope with the trend of global climate change and improve the ability of prevention and control of maize diseases and insect pests in Heilongjiang Province,the effects of climate change on the occurrence of maize diseases and insect pests in Heilongjiang Province were studied by means of mathematical statistics,anomaly analysis and correlation analysis based on meteorological and plant protection observation data during the whole growth period of maize in Heilongjiang Province from 1990 to 2015.The results showed that the average temperature of maize in Heilongjiang Province showed an upward trend with an increase rate of 1.89 ℃·10 a^-1,and the variation of precipitation and sunshine had a great fluctuation,but showed obvious periodicity,with the trend rate reaching^-10.8 mm·10 a^-1 and -21.7 h ·10 a^-1.At the same time,the rising trend rate of maize diseases and insect pests area reached 1.0121 million hm2·10 a^-1 and 2.0657 million hm2 times·10 a^-1,respectively.Since 2000,the proportion of occurrence area of large and small spot disease had been increasing,accounting for more than 60% of the occurrence area of disease.The area affected by insect pests was more than 5 million ·a^-1.The complexity and severity of the occurrence types of insect pests were becoming more and more serious.Temperature change during the whole growth period of maize was one of the main controlling factors for the occurrence of maize diseases and insect pests.It was positively correlated with head smut,corn borer and underground pests(P<0.05).Precipitation is positively correlated with the occurrence of maize leaf spot(P<0.01).For every 1% increase in the proportion of maize diseases and insect pests to the total sown area,the average yield of maize will decrease by 3.98 kg· hm^-2.
作者
王粟
史风梅
裴占江
刘晓烨
卢玢宇
刘杰
聂继东
WANG Su;SHI Feng-mei;PEI Zhan-jiang;LIU Xiao-ye;LU Bin-yu;LIU Jie;NIE Ji-dong(Rural Energy Institute of Heilongjiang Academy of Agricultural Sciences,Harbin 150086,China;Agronomy College,Heilongjiang Bayi Agricultural University,Daqing 163000,China;Fuyu Agricultural and Side-line Industry Base of Shenyang Military Region,Fuyu 161200,China)
出处
《黑龙江农业科学》
2019年第6期20-26,共7页
Heilongjiang Agricultural Sciences
基金
中国清洁发展机制基金项目(2014101)
哈尔滨市科技创新人才项目(2016RAQYJ070)
关键词
气候变化
玉米
病虫害发生
climate change
maize
occurrence of pest and disease
