摘要
本文采用1991年至2016年年度数据,通过建立SVAR模型定量分析人口老龄化对城镇家庭消费水平的影响。本文研究表明人口老龄化会提高城镇家庭消费水平,符合生命周期假说。基于研究结论,本文提出以下政策建议:(1)人口老龄化进程的加快是把双刃剑,有利于扩大内需;(2)完善养老保险和医疗保健服务体系,使老年城镇家庭敢消费、愿意消费;(3)大力发展老龄产业,通过"银发产业"带动银发消费。
This paper uses the annual data from 1991 to 2016 to quantitatively investigate the impact of population aging on urban household consumption level by establishing SVAR model. This paper shows that the population aging will increase urban household consumption level, in line with the life cycle hypothesis. Based on the research conclusions, this paper proposes the following policy recommendations:(1) The acceleration of population aging process is a double-edged sword, which is conducive to expanding domestic demand;(2) Improve the old-age insurance and medical care service system, so that elderly urban families dare and are willing to consume;(3) Vigorously develop the aging industry and promote silver hair consumption through "silver hair industry".
作者
王勇
周涵
WANG Yong;ZHOU Han(Institute of Statistics, Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics 330013;The State Innovative Institute for Public Management and Public Policy Studies, Fudan University 200433;Institute of Accounting and Finance,Xi’an Peihua College 710100)
出处
《上海经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第5期84-91,共8页
Shanghai Journal of Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金重大项目"整体性治理--应对老龄社会的公共政策和公共管理体系重构研究"(项目编号:71490735)
江西省社会科学"十三五"(2017年)规划项目青年博士基金项目"住房价格波动对自有住房家庭消费的异质性影响研究"(项目编号:17BJ08)
中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目"双支柱政策调控住房市场的有效性及协调配合研究"(项目编号:2018M630389)的资助
