摘要
运用GTAP模型,定量评估中美大豆贸易摩擦、中国扩大大豆进口的开放程度和大豆生产技术改进的经济影响。模拟结果显示,中国加征美国大豆进口关税,一定程度促进国内大豆产业发展,但抑制其产业链下游部门发展,尤其是植物油、牛羊肉、猪肉、禽肉及奶制品等。从应对中美大豆贸易摩擦措施效果看,免除其他国家大豆进口关税,只能小幅减缓中美大豆贸易摩擦对中国经济的负面冲击。而改进大豆生产技术,可有效缓解贸易摩擦负面影响,植物油产业受益最明显。研究发现,提高单产、降低劳动力成本是改善大豆经济主要方式,而降低化肥农药成本影响甚微。
The improved GTAP(Global Trade Analysis Project) model was used to quantitatively evaluate the economic effects of Sino-US trade friction for soybean, reducing import tariff barriers of soybean and improving soybean production technology. The results show that, the fact that China has imposed tariffs on soybeans imported from the United States was not conducive to China’s economic growth.Although domestic soybean industry can be promoted from it, soybean’s downstream industries, especially vegetable oil, beef, mutton, pig and dairy products, were negatively affected. On the effectiveness of China’s countermeasures, eliminating all import tariffs on soybeans was weak measure, China’s improvement of its soybean production technology was effective measure, especially for the vegetable oil industry. When the effect of soybean technological progress was decomposed, it was found that increasing yield and reducing labor input dominated, while reducing the input cost of chemical fertilizer and pesticide were negligible.
作者
肖志敏
杨军
XIAO Zhimin;YANG Jun(School of International Trade and Economics, University of International Business and Economics, Beijing 100029, China)
出处
《农业经济与管理》
CSSCI
2019年第3期70-78,共9页
Agricultural Economics and Management
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71761147004)
对外经济贸易大学研究生科研创新基金项目(201810)
关键词
中美大豆贸易摩擦
技术进步
经济影响
GTAP模型
Sino-US soybean trade friction
technological progress
economic impact
GTAP model
