摘要
气温是各种气候因子中影响植物花期迟早最重要的因素之一。以高淳油菜花为研究对象,选取近30年(1986-2016年)物候观测资料,分析了盛花期的变化特征和盛花期早晚年温度因子的特征;采用通径分析法,研究分析了三个表征温度的指标(平均气温Ta<5℃的日数、积温和强冷空气日数)与油菜花盛花期关系,结果为预测高淳油菜花的最佳观赏期、做好相关旅游气象服务提供了理论依据。结果表明:高淳油菜花盛花期在2001年以前波动不大,但在2001年后,随年代际呈提早趋势;盛花期迟早年类型不同,Ta稳定在5℃的日期也有差别,具体为盛花期偏早年<正常偏早年和正常偏晚年<正常年<偏晚年;盛花期偏晚年与Ta<5℃的日数和积温关系也很显著,从冬至日开始,若Ta<5℃的日数超过了53 d或者Ta<5℃的积温超过137℃·d,则翌年油菜花盛花日期有可能出现在4月4日之后;若达到强冷空气级别的日数越多,则翌年高淳油菜花盛花期会有所推后。在三个表征温度的指标中,对油菜花盛花期影响最大的是Ta<5℃积温。
Temperature is one of most important climatic factors in the plant flowering time.Using phenology observed data of rape petal in Gaochun from 1986 to 2016,this paper analyzes the characteristics of full-bloom stage and temperature factors in different years.Path analysis method is used to analyze the effect of three temperature factors on full-bloom stage of rape petal.The three factors are days of mean air temperature lower than 5℃,accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5℃,and days with strong cold air.The results could provide theoretical foundation for the predicting of optimum viewing period and tourism meteorological services of rape petal in Gaochun.Finally,the results show that there is no fluctuation of full-bloom stage before 2001.However,along with the decadal variation,it shows an early trend obriously.The type of full-bloom stage changes with the average temperature stabilized at 5℃.Specifically,the early years of full-bloom stage are less than normal early years and normal late years,less than normal years,and less than later years.There is a significant correlation between fullbloom stage in late years and days of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(Ta<5℃).Beginning from the winter solstice,the full-bloom stage of rape petal next year would be later than April 4 if the Ta<5℃days are more than 53 d,or accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(Ta<5℃)is more than 137℃·d.Then,rape full-bloom stage next year would be pushed back with the more days reaching level of strong cold air.With three indice of low temperature,the largest factor impact on rape petal fullbloom stage is the accumulated temperature of mean air temperature lower than 5℃(Ta<5℃).
作者
张志薇
高苹
王宏斌
艾文文
孙家清
鲍婧
徐敏
ZHANG Zhiwei;GAO Ping;WANG Hongbin;AI Wenwen;SUN Jiaqing;BAO Jing;XU Min(Key Laboratory of Transportation Meteorology,CMA,Nanjing 210009;Jiangsu Meteorological Service Centre,Nanjing 210008;Jiangsu Institute of Meteorological Science,Nanjing 210009)
出处
《气象》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第5期667-675,共9页
Meteorological Monthly
基金
江苏省自然科学青年基金项目(BK20161073)
江苏省气象局科研基金项目(KM201708)共同资助
关键词
油菜花
盛花期
冷空气
通径分析
rape petal
full-bloom stage
cold air
path analysis
