摘要
产能过剩是京津冀地区经济发展面临的突出问题之一.开展区域产能利用率及其影响因素研究,对于揭示高能耗产业产能过剩的机制,并进一步采取合理的产业结构优化和过剩产能化解对策具有重要的实践意义.基于京津冀地区2004-2016年高能耗产业的相关数据,采用生产函数法并通过Eviews9.0对京津冀地区高能耗产业的产能利用率进行了计算,并分析了其影响因素.主要结论如下:(1)京津冀的产能利用率存在地区差异,但都低于79%,处于产能过剩的状态;总体而言,产能利用率的变化可以划分为持续增长、波动上升和波动下降三个阶段;(2)产能利用率具有明显的行业差异,其中有色金属冶炼及压延加工业的产能利用率为36.80%,是产能过剩最突出的行业;(3)高能耗产业产能过剩的主要原因是政府的过度干预、涌潮效应、经济体制扭曲和技术效率低下等;(4)未来应当在京津冀协同发展的基础上,抓住“一带一路”倡议和雄安新区建设的机遇,实施“走出去”战略;加强环境规制作用,推动科技创新和产业结构升级,实现“环保补偿效应”.
Overcapacity was one of the prominent problems during the economic development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.It was of great practical significance to carry out research on regional capacity utilization rate and its influencing factors to reveal the mechanism of overcapacity in the high energy consumption industries,and further adopted reasonable industrial structure optimization and overcapacity solution.Based on the data of high energy consumption industry in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2004 to 2016,this paper used the production function method to calculate the capacity utilization rate of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region and its high energy consumption industries through Eviews9.0,and analyzed the influencing factors about capacity utilization rate.The main conclusions are as following:(1) There were regional differences in capacity utilization rates of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,but they were all below 79% which was in risk of overcapacity;generally speaking,the change of capacity utilization rate could be divided into three stages:sustained growth,rising volatility and falling volatility.(2) The capacity utilization rate had obvious industry differences,among which the capacity utilization rate of non-ferrous metal smelting and pressing industry was 36.80%,which was the most prominent industry with overcapacity.(3) The main reasons for overcapacity in high energy consumption industries were excessive government intervention,wave movement phenomena,economic system distortions and technical inefficiencies.(4) In the future,on the basis of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region.we are supposed to seize the opportunity of the Belt and Road initiatives and the construction of Xiong'an New Area and implement the “going global” strategy;strengthen the production of environmental regulations,promote technological innovation and industrial structure upgrading,and achieve “environmental compensation effects”.
作者
贾品荣
朱瑞明
赵荣钦
焦士兴
杨青林
杨文娟
满洲
JIA Pinrong;ZHU Ruiming;ZHAO Rongqin;JIAO Shixing;YANG Qinlin;YANG Wenjuan;MAN Zhou(Beijing Research Center of Science,Beijing 100089,China;School of Surveying and Geo-infontiatics,North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power,Zhengzhou,Henan 450046,China;School of Resource & Environment and Tourism,Anyang Normal University,Anyang,Henan 455002,China)
出处
《经济数学》
2019年第2期28-34,共7页
Journal of Quantitative Economics
基金
PXM2018_178216_000002_00299336_FCG-创新工程-预研:京津冀传统高能耗产业优化升级与新兴绿色产业培育研究
教育部人文社科项目(17YJCZH257)
河南省自然科学基金(182300410103)
河南省高等学校青年骨干教师培养计划(2017GGJS078)
关键词
能源经济
产能利用率
生产函数法
高能耗产业
京津冀
Energy economy
Capacity Utilization Rate
Production function
High Energy Consumption Industries
Beijing Tianjin-Hebei
