摘要
本文讨论的核心是如何准确认识和理解自然利率,并尝试建立以自然利率为基础的宏观经济分析和政策决策框架。为此,本文首先在一个简单理论架构下对影响自然利率变化的因素及其作用机制进行归纳分析,之后分别利用半结构化模型、宏观计量模型和DSGE模型估计中国的自然利率。在此基础上,针对当前中国宏观经济运行中面临的突出问题和主要矛盾,探讨分析基于自然利率的宏观政策选择,以期为政策决策提供参考。主要结论如下:(1)整体而言,中国自然利率水平近年呈现出逐步下降特征,实际利率仍高于自然利率平均水平。(2)长期内,自然利率变化主要受潜在产出增速下降、TFP增长放缓以及人口结构变化等因素影响。短期内,受政策和经济预期不确定性影响较大。此外,投资专有技术进步增速降低、资本形成效率下降、政府支出不足、去杠杆政策等多种因素都会对自然利率产生影响。(3)在平衡好短期需求与中长期改革目标基础上,应以结构性改革为导向,避免追求名义扩张,促进以提升自然利率和潜在产出为目标的实际扩张。应加强宏观政策协调,促进全要素生产率提升;更加注重优化投资质量和投资结构,提高投资专有技术进步水平;更加重视稳定经济预期,降低宏观经济不确定性带来的负面影响。
In recent years,more and more theoretical concepts,such as the natural rate of interest and potential output,have come to the fore in policy practice and gradually become key elements in macro-policy decisions.In particular,the natural rate of interest is an important monetary policy objective and reference for decision-making.The central bank strives to eliminate price stickiness and improve resource allocation efficiency by promoting the market interest rate to approach the natural rate of interest.After the financial crisis,a complete macro-policy analysis framework was formed around the natural rate of interest,enabling systematic discussion on macro-policy decision-making.Based on the estimated natural rate of interest,we can judge the trend of macroeconomic operation.By analyzing the changes in natural interest rates,we can understand the impact of different shocks on the economy.Based on the interest rate gap,the central bank can identify the state of monetary policy and timeously adjust the direction of future policy.For China,it is equally important to understand and apply the natural rate of interest accurately.As the market-oriented reform of interest rates enters a critical stage,the process of interest rate“merging”will continue to accelerate.A complete interest rate system urgently requires a monetary policy anchored on the natural rate of interest to optimize resource allocation.Meanwhile,with the development and perfection of the macro-policy framework,the concepts of potential output and the natural rate of interest will also provide an important basis for macro decision-making and policy design in China.Therefore,in the current macroeconomic environment,effectively estimating China's natural rate of interest,analyzing how different factors affect it,and understanding its use in macroeconomic policy decision-making are of great theoretical and practical significance.This paper focuses on the accurate recognition and understanding of the natural rate of interest,and establishes a macroeconomic analysis and policy decision framework based on it.We first summarize and analyze the various influencing factors and their mechanisms under a simple theoretical framework,and then estimate the natural rate of interest in China using a semi-structured model,macro-econometric model,and dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model,respectively.On this basis,outstanding problems in the near future can be analyzed and judged to provide the basis for further macro-policy choices.Our main conclusions are as follows.(1)Overall,the natural interest rate in China will continue to gradually slow down in the near future,and the real interest rate will remain higher than the average natural rate of interest.(2)In the long run,the change in the natural interest rate will be influenced mainly by the decline in potential output growth,the slowdown in TFP growth,and the changing population structure.In the short term,the uncertainty of policy and economic expectations will have a greater impact.In addition,the declines in IST growth rate and MEI efficiency,inadequate government expenditure,deleveraging policies,and other factors will affect the natural rate of interest.(3)To balance short-term demand with medium-term and long-term reform objectives,we should focus on structural reform,avoid nominal expansion,and promote actual expansion aimed at raising output potential and the natural rate of interest.We should improve macro-policy coordination to promote total factor productivity,attend more to optimizing investment quality and structure,increase investment in technological progress,and strive to stabilize economic expectations to reduce the negative impact of macro-economic uncertainty.
作者
徐忠
贾彦东
XU Zhong;JIA Yandong(The People's Bank of China)
出处
《经济研究》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第6期22-39,共18页
Economic Research Journal
基金
国家自然科学基金应急管理项目“防范化解重大金融风险:宏观视角与政策应对”(71850001),国家自然科学基金重点项目“中国金融体系的演化规律和变革管理”(71733004)
国家自然科学基金面上项目“金融网络结构下的中国系统风险模型构建”(71873140)的阶段性成果国家社会科学基金专项项目“健全金融监管体系研究”(18VSJ074)
关键词
自然利率
潜在产出
全要素生产率
宏观政策
Natural Interest Rate
Potential Output
Total Factor Productivity
Macro Policy
