摘要
利用山东滨州市7个国家气象站与61个人影作业站点观测资料,结合高空观测及探空、ECMWF再分析等资料,对2001—2011年滨州降雹时空分布特征、天气系统和物理量特征、降雹形势分型和预报方法进行研究。得出:(1)降雹日数年均8.6次,总体呈现明显下降的年际变化特征;4—10月可降雹,6—7月降雹最多;降雹主要出现在14时—翌日02时;北部沿海相对较多。(2)降雹形势主要有5种类型:冷涡型降雹、低槽型降雹、横槽型降雹、西北气流型降雹、其他小范围降雹。根据冷涡中心位置冷涡型划分为两个关键区;低槽型可分为前倾槽、阶梯槽、较深低槽、与中低纬度共同作用的槽;横槽型降雹范围广、破坏性大;西北气流型存在连续性。(3)4类13种物理量具有不同分布特征和变异系数,均具有较好的代表性。不同月份、不同降雹影响程度和影响系统,物理量具有较明显差别。(4)0℃层高度在1370~5331m时,7种物理量可用于预报冰雹,K≥17℃、T850-500≥25℃、LI≤2℃、SRH≥0.1m^2·s^-2、SSI≥240、SWEAT≥100、Cape≥2J·kg^-1时可能降雹。6月、7—8月和其它月分别有3种、1种、3种物理量指标组合可用于预报冰雹,物理量的组合和数值有差异。
Based on the observation data of 7 national meteorological stations and 61 weather modification stations in Binzhou,combining with the upper-air observations and sounding data,and reanalysis data from ECMWF,the temporal and spatial distribution characteristics,weather system and physical quantity characteristics,hail situation classification and forecasting methods in Binzhou from 2001 to 2011 were studied.Results show that:(1)The annual average of hail days was 8.6 times,showing a significant decrease in the overall annual variation characteristics.Hail occurs from April to October,and most from June to July,mainly occurs from 14:00 pm.to 2:00 pm.and more occurs on the northern coast.(2)Hail situation can be divided into five types:cold vortex hail,low-trough hail,transverse trough hail,northwest airflow hail and other small-range hail.According to the center position,the cold vortex hail can be divided into two key regions.The low-trough hail can be divided into forward dip trough,ladder trough,deeper trough,and trough acting together with middle and low latitude.Transverse trough hail has wide range and great destruction.Northwest airflow hail has continuity characteristics.(3)There are 13 kinds of physical quantities in 4 categories with different distribution characteristics and variation coefficients,all of which are well representative.The physical quantity of hail is obviously different in different months,different hail influence and different system.(4)When the 0℃level height between 1370~5331 m,seven kinds of physical quantities can be used to forecast the hail,and hail may drop when K≥17℃、T850-500≥25℃、LI≤2℃、SRH≥0.1 m^2·s^-2、SSI≥240、SWEAT≥100、Cape≥2 J·kg^-1.In June,July to August and other months,there are 3,1 and 3 combinations of physical quantity indexes that can be used to forecast hail,and there are differences in the combination and value of physical quantitys.
作者
王培涛
王凤娇
张婷婷
WANG Peitao;WANG Fengjiao;ZHANG Tingting(Binzhou Meteorological Bureau,Binzhou 256600,China)
出处
《沙漠与绿洲气象》
2019年第3期33-40,共8页
Desert and Oasis Meteorology
基金
山东省预报员专项(sdyby2012-16)
中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2017-041)共同资助
关键词
时空分布特征
形势场分型
物理量指标组合
预报方法
temporal and spatial distribution characteristics
synoptic system classification
physical quantity index combination
forecasting method
