摘要
基于风险系统理论构建研究框架,并结合管理学原理和特征映射理论对国土绿化PPP项目的风险进行研究。国土绿化PPP项目的风险源可划分为4个方面:管理主体、管理环境、管理过程和管理客体。通过对风险源作用于风险受体的侵害路径进行分析,得出已有的风险防控机制在风险预防措施和风险应对措施上存在弊端。其中规划过程的风险预防措施的不足体现为前期评估不全面,绿化方案设计中社会资本的参与度低和资格预审程序不完善;执行过程风险预防措施的不足体现为监管主体单一、绩效考核指标不合理和缺乏对人为破坏的预防措施;风险应对措施的不足体现在不能缓解风险因素对于项目本身造成的冲击。为此,提出增加自然条件评估和经济可行性评估;资格预审中增加技术审查;林业部门和社会资本平等协商确定绿化方案等优化建议。
⑴ Background--In order to make up for the deficiencies of government departments,the Forestry Regulatory Commission encourages forestry ecological construction projects to adopt the public-private partnership (PPP) model.However,PPP mode is one of the modes with complicated risk factors.Whether the risk prevention and control measures are appropriate is the prerequisite for the successful application of PPP mode.⑵ Methods--In this paper,risk system theory is used as the analysis framework to analyze the risk prevention and control mechanism of land greening PPP project.Under this framework,risk is divided into three parts:Risk source,risk receptor and risk prevention and control mechanism.Through the system and structure of management elements in management science,the main sources of risks in land greening PPP projects are identified.Finally,through the feature mapping theory,the path of risk source infringing the risk receptor is analyzed,based on which the original risk prevention and control mechanism is optimized.⑶ Results--First of all,from the four aspects of management subject,management environment,management process and management object,a total of 15 risk sources are identified.Based on the results of risk source identification,a block diagram of the risk infringement path of risk source→risk event→risk loss→risk receptor is constructed.Combined with the risk infringement path,it is found that the existing risk prevention and control system has drawbacks in risk prevention measures and risk response measures.Among them,the deficiencies of risk prevention measures in the planning stage are as follows:incomplete preliminary assessment,low participation of social capital in the design of greening schemes,overlook of the evaluation of technical level in the process of social capital selection.The deficiencies of risk prevention measures in the implementation stage are reflected in the single supervision subject,unreasonable performance evaluation and construction of indicators,and lack of preventive measures against man-made damage.The deficiencies of risk response measures are that compensation is only considered for the participants suffering losses,and the impact of risk factors on project itself cannot be alleviated.⑷ Conclusions and Discussions--In the risk prevention measures at the planning stage,natural condition assessment,economic feasibility assessment and technical review for social capital are added,and the greening scheme is determined through equal consultation between the forestry department and social capital.In the risk prevention measures in the implementation phase,the public participation in the supervision work should be improved.Ecological benefit assessment should be carried out,and nearby farmers should be involved in the project.In terms of risk response measures,the compensation measures for protecting the interests of the public and private sectors should be used together with the remedial measures for the project.If the risk loss is large or the project is difficult to implement according to the original plan,we should give priority to revising the PPP contract through renegotiation.
作者
李浩然
张智光
LI Haoran;ZHANG Zhiguang(College of Economics and Management,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037 China;Institute of Environmental and DevelopmentSystems Engineering,Nanjing Forestry University,Nanjing 210037 China)
出处
《林业经济问题》
北大核心
2019年第4期386-394,共9页
Issues of Forestry Economics
基金
国家自然科学基金项目(71673136)
江苏省高校哲学社会科学优秀创新团队建设项目(苏教社政2013-8-2-1)
关键词
国土绿化
风险
PPP
生态文明
land greening
risks
public-private partnership(PPP)
ecological civilization
