摘要
以临汾市1954-2015年的气象资料为研究对象,通过回归分析、M-K趋势检验和突变性分析等方法对数据进行处理。结果表明,临汾年均温在10.90~14.38℃之间波动,总体呈现增长趋势。与我国平均气温增长率相比,临汾温度增幅较大,特别是自1985年以来年平均气温的升高速率更为明显;2006年后临汾年均温略有下降。在此基础上,对数据进行M-K突变分析,得到的UF和UB曲线交点在检验范围内,从而可认为临汾市年均温上升现象属于突变。对近60年来临汾降水量以及日照时数进行回归分析、M-K突变性检验,数据显示,临汾市年降水量波动次数较多,下降幅度小,在若干年份出现突变性上升或下降,但总体呈下降趋势;年日照时数也呈现出整体下降趋势,近几年出现增多,个别年份经检验为突变,其中以冬季日照时数下降最为显著。个别季节日照时数下降可能与临汾近年冬季大气污染严重有一定关系。本文通过多变量趋势性法对气候变化特征进行分析,对该区域环境质量的改善具有指导性意义。
Based on the meteorological data of Linfen City during 1954-2015,through regression analysis,M-K trend test and sudden change analysis were carried out. The results showed that the annual average temperature of Linfen City fluctuated between 10.90 ℃ and 14.38 ℃,presenting an overall growth trend. Compared with rise rate of temperature in China,it was more obvious in Linfen,especially since 1985. After 2006,the annual average temperature decreased slightly in Linfen. On this basis,the M-K sudden change analysis showed that the intersection points of UF and UB curves were within the test range,so it was concluded that the rise of annual average temperature in Linfen City was a sudden change. The regression analysis and M-K sudden change test of precipitation and sunshine hours showed that annual precipitation in Linfen City fluctuated frequently and decreased slightly,with a sudden increase or decrease in several years,but the overall trend was downward. The annual sunshine hours also showed an overall downward trend,which increased in recent years,and sudden changed in a few years. The annual sunshine hours decreased significantly in winter,which might be related to the serious air pollution in Linfen City in winter.The analysis of climate change characteristics by multivariate trend analysis method is instructive for the improvement of environmental quality in LinFen City.
作者
王念
田庆春
WANG Nian;TIAN Qing-chun(College of Geographic Sciences,Shanxi Normal University,Linfen Shanxi 041000)
出处
《现代农业科技》
2019年第13期175-178,共4页
Modern Agricultural Science and Technology
基金
国家青年科学基金项目(41701223)
