摘要
本文致力于构建一个"一带一路"促进中国与沿线国家贸易增长的理论框架,并使用1995-2015年的107355个二元边际数据作为样本,实证比较100个国家的出口增长情况。理论分析表明:"一带一路"建设的确具有促进沿线国家贸易增长的作用,且这种作用随着制度化建设的加强更为凸显。实证结果显示:"一带一路"不仅显著提升了所有国家的出口增长,而且对新产品新市场的扩展边际作用更大;划分国家类型后,"一带一路"对促进沿线国家贸易增长存在差异,对"陆上丝路国家"集约边际增长的作用更大,而对"海上丝路国家"的扩展边际增长更高。以上结论在加入经济规模、结构转型、实际汇率、外部冲击、一体化协定、语言相通等控制变量后依然稳健,总体体现出"一带一路"建设有利于促进所有国家贸易增长。
This paper builds a theoretical framework of the Belt and Road (i.e. B&R) to promote trade growth between China and the countries along the line.Theoretical analysis shows that the B&R does have an effect on promoting the trade growth of the countries, and this role is more prominent with the strengthening of institutionalization. After using 107355 Dual Marginal data in 1995-2015, we find that: the B&R has the objective value, which has indeed promoted the intensive and extensive marginal growth of the export of the countries;The B&R not only significantly increases the export growth of all countries, but also has a greater marginal effect on the expansion of new products and new markets. After the classification of countries, there is a difference on the effect of the B&R on the trade growth of countries along the line,which is more conducive to intensive margin of export growth of the One Belt countries but more extensive margin of the One Road countries.The above conclusions are still robust after adding the control variables such as economic scale, home country market effect, real exchange rate, structural transformation, trade costs, external shocks, regional cooperation, language communication, which demonstrates that the B&R is generally conducive to promoting trade growth in all countries.
作者
项松林
XIANG Songlin(Institute for International Strategic Studies, Party School of the Central Committee of C.P.C, Beijing 100084, China)
出处
《当代经济科学》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第4期1-13,共13页
Modern Economic Science
基金
国家社会科学基金一般项目“新-新贸易理论拓展模型视角下的中国外贸结构转型升级研究”(15BJL086)
中央党校2015年度校级科研青年项目(思想库)“亚太自贸区:动因、障碍和对策”
关键词
一带一路
贸易增长
二元边际
集约边际
扩展边际
Belt und Road
Export growth
Dual marginal
Intensive marginal
Extensive marginal
