摘要
基于堤防工程的失事风险因素,将堤防工程风险因子进行分类,建立了堤防工程风险评价指标体系,包括荷载作用、保护情况、堤身特性、堤基特性和险情统计这5个方面,共20项指标,确定了各项指标的等级和标准,提出了堤防工程风险指标体系云模型评价方法,给出了云模型评价流程.以南京市秦淮河堤防工程七桥瓮~东山桥段为实例应用该方法进行了风险评价.结果表明,七桥瓮~东山桥段堤防工程风险在2007年评价值为87.99,属于较安全等级,符合当时评估情况;而2017年评价值为95.67,属于安全等级,与南京市秦淮河整治目标一致,且与实际情况相符,验证了所提出的风险评价指标体系及云模型评价方法的有效性和适用性.
Based on the risk factors of the embankment engineering, the risk factors of the embankment engineering are classified;and the risk evaluation index system of the embankment project is set up, which includes 5 aspects, including load, protection, dike body characteristics, embankment base characteristics and dangerous situation statistics, which are 20 indices;the grade and standard of every index are determined;and cloud model method is applied to evaluate the risk of embankment project in the Qinhuai River between Qiqiaoweng and Dongshan Bridge in Nanjing. The results show that the evaluation value of embankment engineering between Qiqiaoweng and Dongshan Bridge in 2007 is 87.99, which is a relatively safe grade, which is consistent with the assessment at that time.However, the evaluation value is 95.67 in 2017, which belongs to the safety grade, which is consistent with the the Qinhuai River regulation target in Nanjing, and is consistent with the actual situation, which validates the validity and applicability of the cloud model evaluation method.
作者
杨子桐
黄显峰
方国华
杨红卫
YANG Zitong;HUANG Xianfeng;FANG Guohua;YANG Hongwei(College of Water Conservancy and Hydropower Engineering,Hohai University,Nanjing 210098,China;Nanjing Water Planning and Designing Institute Corp. Ltd.,Nanjing 210006,China)
出处
《武汉大学学报（工学版）》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第7期572-580,共9页
Engineering Journal of Wuhan University
基金
国家重点研发计划课题(编号:2016YFC0400909)
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(编号:2019B11014,2018B751X14)
湖南省水利科技重点项目(编号:[2016]194-21)
湖南省水利科技项目(编号:[2015]245-13)
江苏省研究生实践创新计划项目(编号:SJCX18-0177)
