摘要
为提高船舶交通流量预测精度,通过对传统的灰色Verhulst模型进行改进,在对深圳港进出口船舶数量分析的基础上,通过传统灰色Verhulst模型计算出初始预测值和残差预测值,引入残差修正和时间响应函数优化机理的方法,对模型进行修正。实验结果表明,修正后的船舶交通流量预测数据与实际数据间的平均相对误差率为2.12%,绝对关联度为0.9673,说明模型符合灰色预测检验标准,模型预测结果准确可靠,改进的灰色Verhulst模型可以推广到船舶交通流量其他参数的预测中。
In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the ship traffic flow,the traditional gray Verhulst model was improved.Based on the data analysis of ships entering and leaving of Shenzhen port,the residual value and the initial prediction value were calculated by the traditional gray Verhulst model,The residual correction method and time response function were introduced to modify the model.The result of experiment showed that the relative error rate between the forecasted data and actual data is 2.12%and the absolute relevance is 0.9673,which indicates that the model predictive effect is accurate and reliable.So the improved gray Verhulst model can be extended to the prediction of other parameters of ship traffic flow.
作者
陈作桓
杨家轩
陈志宁
CHEN Zuo-huan;YANG Jia-xuan;CHEN Zhi-ning(Navigation college,Dalian Maritime University,Dalian Liaoning 116026,China;Straits College of Engineering,Fujian University of Technology,Fuzhou,350108,China)
出处
《船海工程》
北大核心
2019年第A01期267-270,共4页
Ship & Ocean Engineering
基金
辽宁省自然科学基金项目(20160284)
大连海事大学教学改革项目(2015Y02).
