摘要
文章基于全生命周期的碳源-碳汇模型,测算并分析了长株潭城市群2007-2017年土地利用的碳收支量,并在此基础上应用LMDI分解模型与Tapio脱钩模型对土地利用碳排放变化的影响因素及其与经济增长间的内在关系进行了定量分析。主要结论如下:(1)2007-2017年,长株潭城市群土地利用的净碳排放量呈逐年上升趋势,年均增长率为9.79%;(2)经济发展水平与建设用地规模是促进长株潭城市群土地利用碳排放量增长的正效应因素,碳排放强度与土地利用效率是抑制长株潭城市群土地利用碳排放量增长的负效应因素;(3)10年间,长株潭城市群土地利用碳排放与经济增长除2009-2010年、2015-2016年呈现扩展连接外,其余年份处于弱脱钩状态。最后,从碳减排与碳增汇视角提出土地低碳利用的政策建议。
Based on the carbon source-carbon sink model of the whole life cycle, the carbon budget of land use in Chang-Zhu- Tan urban agglomeration from 2007 to 2017 was calculated and analyzed. Based on this, the influence factors of la nd use carbon emission change and its internal relationship with economic growth were quantitatively analyzed by using LMDI decomposition model and Tapio decoupling model. The results showed that:(1) From 2007 to 2017, the net carbon emissions of land use in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration increased year by year, with an average annual growth rate of 9.79%;(2) The level of economic development and the scale of construction land are the positive factors to promote the growth of land use carbon emissions in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration, the intensity of carbon emissions and land use efficiency are the negative factors to restrain the growth of land use carbon emissions in Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration;(3) During the past 10 years, the land use carbon emissions and economic growth of Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration were in a weak decoupling state, except for a few years (2009-2010, 2015-2016). Finally, the policy recommendations for low-carbon land use are proposed from the perspective of carbon emission reduction and carbon increase.
作者
李键
毛德华
蒋子良
李科
LI Jian;MAO Dehua;JIANG Ziliang;LI Ke(College of Resources and Environmental Science, Hunan Nonnal University, Changsha Hunan 410081, China)
出处
《生态经济》
北大核心
2019年第8期28-34,66,共8页
Ecological Economy
基金
国家一流学科培育项目“地理学”(810006-1213)
湖南省国土资源科技项目“城市土地低碳利用研究”(2012-43)
湖南省重点研发计划项目“湘江流域水生态保护与修复生态补偿技术体系与机制研究”(2017SK2301)
关键词
土地利用碳排放
因素分解
脱钩效应
长株潭城市群
land use carbon emissions
factors decomposition
decoupling effect
Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration
