摘要
基于自然灾害风险理论,利用雷暴日和闪电定位资料、基础地理信息资料、社会经济资料以及雷电灾情资料,选取地形变化、水系、土壤电导率、雷暴日、地闪密度、土地利用、人均GDP、敏感单位防雷能力等11个指标,运用层次分析法构建了雷电灾害风险指数,建立雷电灾害风险评估模型,从雷电灾害的致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体和防灾减灾能力4个方面进行了系统的分析,并运用ArcGIS进行了1 km×1 km雷电灾害综合风险区划。区划结果表明内蒙古东部大部和中部南部地区属于高风险区,中部北部地区属于中风险区,低风险区域主要分布在西部地区。通过选取雷灾资料进行雷电灾害的灰色关联评估,以验证区划结果的正确性,评估结果与雷电灾害风险区划分布大体一致。
Based on the theory of natural disaster risk, 11 indexes, such as terrain change, water system, soil conductivity, thunderstorm day, cloud-ground lightning density, land use, per capita GDP, and lightning protection ability of sensitive units, were selected from thunderstorm day and lightning location data, basic geographic information data, social economic data and lightning disaster data. The risk index of lightning disaster was constructed by analytic hierarchy process(AHP), and the risk assessment model of lightning disaster was set up. The systematic analysis was made from 4 aspects of lightning disaster factors, pregnancy disaster environment, disaster bearing body and disaster prevention and reduction ability, and the comprehensive risk zoning of 1 km×1 km lightning disaster was carried out by ArcGIS. The results showed that most of the eastern Inner Mongolia and the southern parts of central Inner Mongolia belonged to the high risk area, the northern part of the central Inner Mongolia belonged to the middle risk area, and the low risk area was mainly distributed in the western region. In order to verify the correctness of the regionalization results, the lightning disaster data were selected for the grey correlation evaluation of the lightning disaster, the assessment results were consistent with the distribution of lightning disaster risk regionalization.
作者
刘晓东
尤莉
宋昊泽
于凤鸣
李庆君
萨日娜
刘旭洋
Liu Xiaodong;You Li;Song Haoze;Yu Fengming;Li Qingjun;Sa Rina;Liu Xuyang(Inner Mongolia Lightning Warning & Protection Center,Hohhot 010051;Inner Mongolia Climate Centre,Hohhot 010051)
出处
《中国农学通报》
2019年第20期75-82,共8页
Chinese Agricultural Science Bulletin
基金
内蒙古自治区自然科学基金“内蒙古不同地表类型下雷电电磁场传播的算法研究及数值模拟”(2015MS0410)
内蒙古自治区气象局科技创新项目“内蒙古地闪特征与雷电灾害的相关性研究”(nmqxkjcx201906)
