摘要
基于2009—2013年北京地区电力负荷以及自动站气象资料,分析讨论了日最大电力负荷的变化特征以及与气象因子之间的相关关系,并使用2009—2012年资料,通过多元回归建立日最大电力负荷预测模型。研究分析结果表明:日最大电力负荷主要出现在09:00—17:00并与气温存在明显相关性,其中在18.7℃以上呈正相关,在18.7℃以下呈负相关。使用2013年的数据对模型进行验证,其预报准确率达到91.6%,展现出了良好的预报能力。
The characteristics of maximum daily power load and the dependence of maximum daily power load on meteorological factors are analyzed in this paper based on the records of the power load and auto weather station meteorological data of Beijing from 2009 to 2013. A maximum daily power load forecasting model is established through multivariable linear regression. The results of the study indicate that the maximum daily power load occurs between 9 BST and 17BST, obviously correlating to the air temperature, with positive correlation with the air temperature below 18.7 ℃ and negative correlation above 18.7℃. The proposed model is verified using the data collected in 2013 with an accuracy of 91.6%, showing its good ability to forecast the maximum daily power load.
作者
石玉恒
赵娜
王凌
许丽佳
周洁
林倩
乔媛
SHI Yuheng;ZHAO Na;WANG Ling;XU Lijia;ZHOU Jie;LIN Qian;QIAO Yuan(Beijing Emergent Incident Warning Issue Center, Beijing 100089, China;Beijing Meteorological Service Center, Beijing 100089, China;State Grid Beijing Electric Power Company, Beijing 100031, China)
出处
《中国电力》
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第8期157-163,共7页
Electric Power
基金
北京市科委计划资助项目(Z151100002115045)~~
关键词
电力负荷
气象因子
预测模型
北京
power load
meteorological factor
forecasting model
Beijing
