摘要
为提高人口数量预测的精度,针对传统的Leslie模型的预测误差大,提出一种修正Leslie模型的人口数量预测模型。运用男女人口总数代替女性人口总数,使得Leslie模型矩阵更加符合实际。选择第6次人口普查数据为研究对象,数据包括每个年龄阶段的人数、死亡率、存活率和出生率,运用修正Leslie模型对全国2010~2030年人口数量和不同学龄段的人口数量分别进行预测。研究结果表明,修正Leslie模型可以有效提高人口数量预测的精度,可以在一定程度上为教育政策的制定和教育资源的调度提供决策的依据。
In order to improve the accuracy of population forecasting, a population forecasting model modified by Leslie model is proposed for the traditional Leslie model. The use of the total population of men and women instead of the total population of women makes the Leslie model matrix more realistic. The sixth census data were selected as the object of study. The data included the number of people at each age, mortality, survival rate, and birth rate. The revised Leslie model was used to predict the number of people in the country from 2010 to 2030 and the number of people of different school ages. The research results show that the revised Leslie model can effectively improve the accuracy of population forecasting, and can provide a basis for decision-making for the formulation of education policies and the scheduling of educational resources.
作者
梁萌
吴慧
Liang Meng;Wu Hui(Shaanxi National Defense Industry Vocational and Technical College, Shaanxi Xi'an 710300, China)
出处
《现代科学仪器》
2019年第1期159-162,共4页
Modern Scientific Instruments
