摘要
目的基于中断时间序列分析(ITS)评价甲肝疫苗纳入EPI对重庆市甲肝发病率的影响。方法收集1996—2018年重庆市甲肝发病率资料,利用ITS建立多重现性回归模型,评价甲肝疫苗纳入EPI前后甲肝发病率水平及斜率变化。结果1996—2018年重庆市年均发病率为12.67/10万;发病率呈线性下降趋势(Z=-244.17,P=0.000)。甲肝疫苗纳入EPI前,平均发病率为21.12/10万,下降斜率为2.70/10万。甲肝疫苗纳入EPI后,平均发病率为3.33/10万,下降斜率为0.21/10万。甲肝疫苗纳入EPI后发病率较甲肝疫苗纳入EPI前下降了17.79/10万,下降斜率减少了2.49/10万。结论甲肝疫苗纳入EPI对降低重庆市甲肝发病率发挥积极作用,但下降斜率变小。
Objective To evaluate the impact of the inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in the EPI program on the incidence of hepatitis A in Chongqing based on interrupted time series (ITS) analysis. Methods Data on the incidence of hepatitis A in Chongqing from 1996 to 2018 were collected,and multiple linear regression models were established using ITS to assess the level and slope change of hepatitis A incidence after the inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in the EPI program. Results The average annual incidence rate in Chongqing from 1996 to 2018 was 12.67/100 000.The incidence rate showed a linear decline(Z=-244.17, P =0.000). Before the hepatitis A vaccine was included in the EPI,the incidence rate of hepatitis A was 21.12/100 000,and the decline slope was 2.70/ 100 000. After the hepatitis A vaccine was included in the EPI,the incidence rate of hepatitis A was 3.33/100 000,and the decline slope was 0.21/100 000.The incidence rate of hepatitis A decreased by 17.79/100 000 after the inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in the EPI compared to before the inclusion,while the decline slope decreased by 2.49/100 000. Conclusion The inclusion of hepatitis A vaccine in EPI had a positive effect on reducing the incidence of hepatitis A in Chongqing,but the decreasing slope became smaller.
作者
刘天
李勤
漆莉
李柏松
夏宇
杨琳
赵寒
LIU Tian;LI Qin;QI Li;LI Bosong;XIA Yu;YANG Lin;ZHAO Han(Jingzhou Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Jingzhou,Hubei 434000,China;Chinese Field Epidemiology Training Program,Beijing 100050,China;Chongqing Municipal Center for Disease Control and Prevention,Chongqing 400042,China)
出处
《公共卫生与预防医学》
2019年第4期25-28,共4页
Journal of Public Health and Preventive Medicine
