摘要
利用广西双季稻区1961-2016年逐日气象资料和1986-2016年水稻物候观测资料,运用气候倾向率等方法研究广西早稻生育期高温热害时空分布规律及其对产量的影响,进一步探明气候变暖对广西早稻高温热害及其产量的影响。结果表明,(1)广西早稻关键生育期发生高温热害平均频率为35.4%,高值区主要分布在桂南稻区的左右江河谷以及桂东南梧州市。(2)高温热害变化趋势各有差异,桂南稻区早稻高温热害总次数、总天数、强度均呈微弱增加的趋势,而桂中、桂北稻区高温热害总次数、总天数呈微弱减少的趋势或者基本不变,强度则均呈微弱增加的趋势。(3)广西早稻关键生育期发生高温热害平均总天数为124.9d,平均总次数为28次,平均强度为4.5d/次。三个稻区高温热害总次数、总天数和强度桂南>桂中>桂北。(4)桂南、桂中和桂北稻区的年代产量波动变化大,尤其是桂南、桂中稻区进入21世纪以后产量波动更明显。大多数稻区高温热害多的年份,其早稻产量就低。研究结果可为广西合理调整早稻播期及品种属性搭配、稳产高产提供决策参考依据。
Based on daily meteorological data from 1961 to 2016 and rice phenological observation data from 1986 to 2016 in double-season rice region of Guangxi, the temporal and spatial distribution of high temperature stress in early rice growing period and its effect on yield were studied by means of climatic tendency rate, and the effect of global warming on high temperature stress and yield of early rice in Guangxi was further explored. The results show that:(1) The average frequency of high temperature stress during the critical growth period of early rice in Guangxi is 35.4%. The high value areas mainly distribute in the left and right river valleys of southern Guangxi rice region and Wuzhou City.(2) The change trends of high temperature stress are different. The total number of times and days, as well as the intensity in southern Guangxi show a slight increasing trend, while the total number of times and days in central and northern Guangxi show a slight decreasing trend or are basically unchanged, only the intensity showed a slight increasing trend.(3) The average total number of days in the key growth period of early rice in Guangxi is 124.9 days, the average total number of times is 28, and the average intensity is 4.5 d/time. The total number of times, total number of days, and intensity of high temperature stress are south Guangxi> central Guangxi> north Guangxi.(4) The the annual output of south, central and north Guangxi fluctuate greatly, especially in southern and central Guangxi, the output fluctuations are more obvious after entering the 21st century. In most years that have high temperature stress, the rice yields are low. To sum up, the research results can provide a basis for for the rational adjustment of early rice sowing date, variety attribute matching, and enhancing the yield of early rice in Guangxi.
作者
廖雪萍
史彩霞
黄梅丽
覃峥嵘
李玉红
黄祎萱
Liao Xueping;Shi Caixia;Huang Meili;Qin Zhengrong;Li Yuhong;Huang Yixuan(Guangxi Meteorological Research Institute,Nanning 530022;Guangxi Meteorological Service Center,Nanning 530022;Guangxi Meteorological Information Center,Nanning 530022)
出处
《气象研究与应用》
2019年第2期56-60,114,共6页
Journal of Meteorological Research and Application
基金
广西区气象局重点攻关项目“气候变暖背景下广西双季稻安全生产适应性研究”(桂气科201505)
关键词
广西
早稻
气候变暖
热害
产量
影响
Guangxi
early rice
climate warming
heat damage
yield
impact
