摘要
利用1991—2017年BCCCSM1.1(m)模式模拟数据和NCEP/NCAR逐月再分析资料,评估了BCCCSM1.1(m)对初夏东北冷涡的模拟能力。结果表明:BCCCSM1.1(m)模式可以对500hPa位势高度场气候态进行模拟,均方根误差显示该模式对中国东北南部地区500hPa位势高度场的模拟要优于东北北部地区。EOF第一模态结果显示,该模式可以较好地模拟出500hPa位势高度场的主要时空变化特征。BCC_CSM1.1(m)模式能够模拟出近27a东北冷涡指数的上升趋势和年际变化,但模拟的上升趋势较实况偏强,年际变率较实况偏弱。BCCCSM1.1(m)模式能够模拟出东北冷涡指数的年代际突变,但是对突变开始时间的模拟较实况偏晚。BCCCSM1.1(m)模式能够模拟出东北冷涡指数和500hPa位势高度场在东北及其附近地区的显著正相关,不能模拟出东北冷涡指数与东北初夏降水之间的显著负相关。此外,模式东北冷涡指数对东北初夏降水的预测能力十分有限。
Based on the numerical simulation data of the BCCCSM1.1 (Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version1.1)(m) model and the NCEP/NCAR (National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research) reanalysis data from1991 to2017,the ability of BCCCSM1.1 (m) model to simulate the cold vortex in Northeast China in early summer was evaluated.The results demonstrate that the BCC_CSM1.1 (m) model is basically successful in simulating the climate state of 500 hPa geopotential height fields.The mean square root error shows that the simulation result of the 500 hPa geopotential height fields in the south of Northeast China is better than that in the north of Northeast China.The first EOF mode of 500 hPa geopotential height fields demonstrates that the BCCCSM1.1 (m) model can well simulate the major temporal and spatial features.The BCCCSM1.1 (m) model can well simulate the upward trend and interannual variability of the northeast cold vortex (NECV) index in the last27 years,however,the simulated upward trend is stronger than the actual situation and the interannual variability is weaker than the actual situation.The BCCCSM1.1 (m) model can also successfully reproduce the interdecadal abrupt change of the NECV index,however,the start time of abrupt change is later than that of the actual situation.It is able to successfully simulate the significant positive correlation between the NECV index and the 500 hPa geopotential height fields in Northeast China and nearby areas,however,it fails to catch the significant negative correlation between the NECV index and the early summer rainfall in Northeast China.Furthermore,the ability of the NECV index to simulate the rainfall in early summer in Northeast China is very limited.
作者
焦敏
李辑
于亚鑫
胡春丽
王莹
周斌
JIAO Min;LI Ji;YU Ya-xin;HU Chun-li;WANG Ying;ZHOU Bin(Ecological Meteorology and Satellite Remote Sensing Center of Liaoning Province,Shenyang 110166,China;Shenyang Central Meteorological Observatory,Shenyang 110166,China)
出处
《气象与环境学报》
2019年第4期55-62,共8页
Journal of Meteorology and Environment
基金
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201306021)
国家自然科学基金(41605087)
辽宁省气象局科学技术研究课题(BA201907)共同资助
