摘要
合理的林业产业结构能够促进林业产业的协调发展,对林业产业结构发展趋势的准确预测能够及时调整林业产业结构,使其朝着合理的方向发展。基于灰色马尔科夫模型对黑龙江省国有林区林业产业结构的变动趋势进行预测,首先运用GM(1,1)模型对黑龙江省国有林区1998—2021年林业三次产业比重进行预测,根据1998—2016年预测相对误差的不同区间进行分类,然后基于马尔科夫转移矩阵预测出2017—2021年灰色预测的相对误差区间,根据误差区间对灰色预测结果进行修正,并进行归一化处理。结果发现,1998—2016年林业产业结构由"一、二、三"模式逐步波动式的向"一、三、二"模式转变,且在未来5年内,第三产业比重将继续上升,并超过第一产业成为林业主导产业,林业产业结构将变为"三、一、二"模式。根据分析结果,提出黑龙江省国有林区的发展应以林业第三产业为主,结合发展林业第一、二产业,并进一步针对黑龙江省国有林区三次产业的发展提出合理建议。
A reasonable forestry industry structure can promote the coordinated development of the forestry industry. Accurate prediction of the development trend of the forestry industry structure can promptly adjust the structure of the forestry industry and make it develop in a reasonable direction. Based on the Gray-Markov model, the paper forecasts the changes in the forestry structure of state-owned forest area in Heilongjiang province. First, use the GM(1,1) model to predict the proportion of the three industries of forestry in stateowned forest area in Heilongjiang province from 1998 to 2021. And then, classify the relative errors of grey forecasts from 1998 to2016 into different category intervals. The relative error intervals from 2017 to 2021 can be predicted based on the Markov transition matrix. Finally, correct the gray prediction result according to the relative error interval and normalized. As a result, it was found that the structure of the forestry industry from 1998 to 2016 changed gradually from "one-two-three" mode to "one-three-two" mode, and that in the next five years, the proportion of the third industry will continue to rise and exceed the primary industry to become the leading industry in forestry. The forestry industry structure will change to the "three-one-two" mode. According to the results, it is proposed that the development of state-owned forest area in Heilongjiang province should be focused on the third industry of forestry, combining the development of the primary and secondary industries. Then further propose reasonable suggestions for the development of the three industries in the state-owned forest area in Heilongjiang Province.
作者
吕洁华
刘艳迪
王潇涵
LYU Jiehua;LIU YanDi;WANG Xiaohan(College of Economics and Management,Northeast Forestry University,Harbin 150040,Heilongjiang,China)
出处
《中南林业科技大学学报》
CAS
CSCD
北大核心
2019年第9期122-128,共7页
Journal of Central South University of Forestry & Technology
基金
黑龙江省哲学社会科学规划项目“基于森林转型的黑龙江国有林区林业经济转型驱动机理与转型路径研究”(17GLB012)
