摘要
本文以山西省交城县为例,选取坡度、降雨、植被、采空区分布、灾害点密度等14个指标构建基于突变理论的地质灾害风险性评价体系。将Jenks优化法与突变理论相结合,计算各指标权重,利用ArcGIS平台对县域进行栅格划分,栅格叠加计算后得到评价单元的风险性指数,将研究区分为高风险区、较高风险区、中风险区、较低风险区和低风险区五级,并通过成功率曲线法对评价结果进行验证。结果表明:交城县地质灾害高风险区22.44km2,占全县面积的1.23%,有灾害点61处,占灾害点总数的62.89%。分析可知,岩土体结构差、人类活动强烈、采空区和断裂带分布密集的区域易诱发地质灾害。经成功率曲线法验证,评价结果成功率为93%,表明该评价方法准确可靠,可为后续地质灾害防治提供参考。
This paper took Jiaocheng County of Shanxi Province as an example, an assessment system was built on catastrophe theory by 14 indexes of slope gradient, rainfall, vegetation, goaf distribution, disaster sites density and so on.By calculating the weights of each index in the model and applying the Jenks optimism in combination with the catastrophe theory, using the ArgGIS platform to divide the county region into grids, the risk index of the assessment unit was obtained after grid addition and calculation.Then the research area was divided into 5 levels presenting high-risk area, higher-risk area, medium-risk area, lower-risk area and the low-risk area.At last the evaluation results were verified by the success rate curve method.The result showed that the area of high-risk area of geological disasters in Jiaocheng County was 22.44 km2, occupying 1.23% of the total area with 61 disaster sites, accounting for 62.89% of the total number of disaster sites.It could be analyzed that geological disasters had a higher chance of occurring when there were the poor geotechnical structure, intense human activity along with densely packed goaf and fault zone.It was verified that the success ratio of the evaluation results was 93%, which indicated that the evaluation method based on the catastrophe theory was accurate and reliable, and could provide a basis for the subsequent geological disaster control.
作者
温晓艺
郑秀清
陈军锋
李力
武鑫
WEN Xiao-yi;ZHENG Xiu-qing;CHEN Jun-feng;LI Li;WU Xin(College of Hydroscience and Engineering/Taiyuan University of Technology. Taiyuan 030024, China;First Hydrogeology and Engineering Geological Team of Shanxi Province, Taiyuan 030024, China)
出处
《山东农业大学学报（自然科学版）》
北大核心
2019年第4期575-581,共7页
Journal of Shandong Agricultural University：Natural Science Edition
基金
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41572221)
山西省水文水资源勘测局项目(ZNGZ2015-036)
关键词
地质灾害
突变理论
风险性评价
Geological disaster
catastrophe theory
risk assessment
