摘要
中国正处在超低生育率早已形成、人口增长接近尾声、老龄化程度不断加深、人口迁移流动更加活跃、城市化快速发展、出生人口性别比高位回落与婚姻挤压效果加速显现时期,中国未来人口发展将进入持续超低生育率、人口即将负增长、劳动力短缺将愈演愈烈、社保基金亏空将迅速扩大、城市扩张与城市收缩并存、人口对资源环境压力将持续减轻与计生机构迅速弱化乃至消失的新阶段。转变人口发展理念、调整生育政策、变革社会保障制度、构建生育友好型社会是中国人口发展的必然选择。
China is now in a period of ultra-low fertility, near the end of population growth, deepening aging, more active population migration and mobility, rapid urbanization, declining sex ratio at birth and accelerating effect of marriage squeeze. China's future population development will enter a new stage of sustained ultra-low fertility, imminent negative population growth, and intensified labor shortage. Social security fund deficit will expand rapidly, urban expansion and urban contraction coexist, population pressure on resources and environment will continue to ease and family planning institutions will rapidly weaken or even disappear. It is an inevitable choice for China's population development to change the concept of population development, adjust the fertility policy, reform the social security system and build a fertility-friendly society.
出处
《人口与社会》
2019年第4期3-17,共15页
Population and Society
基金
国家社会科学基金重大项目“实现积极老龄化的公共政策及其机制研究”(17ZDA120)
关键词
低生育率
老龄化
人口负增长
生育政策
low fertility rate
aging
negative population growth
fertility policy
