摘要
[目的]对十三五期间全国中医药医疗资源与服务需求发展进行预测,为有效实现我国中医药“十三五”规划提供数据参考。[方法]运用MATLAB2018编程建立灰色预测模型GM(1,1)进行预测。[结果]十三五规划期间我国中医药医疗资源与服务需求均保持涨幅状态,但增长率相比“十二五”规划期间呈递减趋势。基于预测结果,2020年中医医院床位数将达1,268,850张,机构数5296个,分别高于国家《中医药“十三五”规划》中113.6万张、4867个的指标预期值。出院人数为3785.6万人,总诊疗人次124,902.7万人次,低于《中医药“十三五”规划》中4,326.52万出院人数及13.49亿诊疗人次的指标预期值。[结论]通过MATLAB2018建立的GM(1,1)预测方程均实现C<0.35,P=1,拟合效果好;我国中医药医疗资源投入总量有效,但利用效率偏低导致有效服务产出不足成为“十三五”期间制约中医药事业发展的关键因素。应加强资源统筹规划力度,注重中医药资源投入与产出效率协同发展;加大中医药人才队伍建设的财政投入水平,优化中医药服务能力建设;通过强化政策引导,刺激中医药在基层和社区卫生医疗、康复、保健、护理等领域中的潜在服务需求以提高有效服务产出。
Objective To forecast the demand of traditional Chinese medicine medical resources and services demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan so as to provide data reference for the effective realization of the 13th Five-Year Plan of traditional Chinese medicine. Methods Established grey prediction GM(1,1) model by MATLAB 2018 programming to forecast. Results During the 13th Five-Year Plan period,Chinese traditional medicine medical resources and service demand kept increasing status,but the growth rate showed decreasing trend compared with the 12th Five-Year Plan period. Based on forecast result,the number of beds in TCM hospitals will reach 1268850 in 2020,and the number of institutions will be 5296,which is higher than indicators of 1136000,4867. The total number of discharged patients was 37.856 million,and the total number of visits was 1.249027 billion person-time,which is lower than the expected value of 43.2652 million discharge and 1.349 billion visits. Conclusions The prediction equation established by MATLAB 2018 can achieve C<0.35%, P=1,matching effect is good. It is efficacious investment gross of traditional Chinese medicine resource,but low utilization efficiency leads to insufficiency of effective service output,which is the key factor that restricts the development of traditional Chinese medicine,we should pay attention to the resource overall planning and coordinated development of input and output efficiency. Increase the financial input level of talent team construction of TCM. Optimize the construction of traditional Chinese medicine service capacity. Stimulate the potential service demand of traditional Chinese medicine in the fields of medical treatment,recovery,health and fitness,nurse in grass root and community health care so as to improve the output of effective service.
作者
韦柳丝
张新花
零春晴
曾柳艳
WEI Liu-si;ZHANG Xin-hua;LING Chun-qing;ZENG Liu-yan(School of Information and Management,Guangxi Medical University,Guangxi Nanning 530021,China)
出处
《卫生软科学》
2019年第9期66-70,共5页
Soft Science of Health
基金
广西研究生教育创新计划项目:运用数据包络模型评价2011-2015年广西中医药事业发展现状及趋势(YCSW2018113)
关键词
中医药
医疗资源
服务需求
灰色预测模型
traditional Chinese medicine resources
service demand
grey prediction model
